Economic effects of Pandemic Flu

[snowman41]

Thought I would start a thread about the impacts on the economy. Here's a link for a start...

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Is IT ready for a pandemic after mergers, layoffs?

CDC urges 'paying attention' to swine flu that has killed in Mexico, landed in U.S.

By Patrick Thibodeau

http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&taxonomyName=knowledge_center&articleId=9132111&taxonomyId=1&intsrc=kc_top

Dusting off plans for companies that are already running lean, to run with reduced staffing.

***

Based on SARS, airlines will be hard hit, as well as imports and exports.

***

John Galt and the other economic gurus ... Any thoughts?

:shock:

Snowy

[Gib]

Snowy,
I don't think ANY company is going to care about the flu, they are more worried about their bottom line. If the flu hits their company there are many more unemployed to take their places. JMHO
Gib

[kelee877]

Here is some info;


http://www.pandemictoolkit.com/flu-pandemic/flu-impacteconomy.aspx


How would a pandemic impact the US economy?
A pandemic could deliver a "shock" to the economy, with immediate demand- and supply-side effects, as well as longer-term supply-side effects.17

The general slowdown in economic activity would reduce gross domestic product (GDP). Business confidence would be dented, the supply of labor would be restricted, supply chains would be strained as transportation systems were disrupted, and arrears and default rates on consumer and business debt would probably rise. It seems likely that the stock market would initially fall and rebound later.17

Estimates of the economic impact vary widely. A pandemic could cause a serious recession in the US economy, with immediate costs ranging from $500 billion to $675 billion. The following is a sampling of predictions from financial leaders:18

WBB Securities LLC predicted a pandemic could cause a one-year economic loss of $488 billion and a permanent economic loss of $1.4 trillion to the US economy
The Congressional Budget Office said a pandemic could deal a $675 billion hit to the US economy
The World Bank has predicted a pandemic could cost the global economy $800 billion a year

[Watchingbear]

There was a lot of discussion about this in 2005 during the first bird flu scare. In 2005, BMO produced "An Investor's Guide to Avian Flu". The author, Don Coxe, is a pretty smart cookie.

It is dated now, and circumstances are different, but it still should have some good info.

www.bmo (http://www.%3Cb%3Ebmo%3C/b%3E)nesbittburns.com/economics/reports/20050812/avian_flu.pdf

You may have to copy & paste the above link into your browser.

That report, and others are also available here

http://www.birdflumanual.com/resources/Pandemic_Economics/pan_econ.asp

[Jubilee on Earth]

Snowy,
I don't think ANY company is going to care about the flu, they are more worried about their bottom line. If the flu hits their company there are many more unemployed to take their places. JMHO
Gib

But what if your company depends on the municipal infrastructure? If city buildings, schools, libraries, etc. are all closed, then that will eventually ripple-effect. Manufacturing may not care, but what about companies like Cintas that delivers uniforms, matting and safety? Or companies that sell teachers' supplies?

Or what about when parents sue because they're home with their off-from-school children, with no daycare? You bet that will happen if those parents' employers fire them for not showing up to work.

[Sassafras]

Snowy,
I don't think ANY company is going to care about the flu, they are more worried about their bottom line. If the flu hits their company there are many more unemployed to take their places. JMHO
Gib


I understand what you're saying, but that is assuming there are healthy workers to take their place. I hope it doesn't get that bad, but it has in the past.

[Sambucol]

I'm watching Fox News and they just came on and said World Health Organization said this flu outbreak in Mexico may go into a full blown pandemic. They were showing video of their military passing out masks to folks. Reminded me of when people here were in the FEMA lines and the Guard was putting MREs in people's vehicles.

I am a teacher in public school. So far, we haven't been issued any info on the flu outbreak in Mexico, but I suspect that info will be coming soon. We have many students with ties to Mexico in my school. It won't surprise me to see this flu spread quickly into the states, and if the flu does spread here, it will affect our workplaces.

[kelee877]

WHO: Mexico swine flu has 'pandemic potential'
1 hour ago
GENEVA (AP) — The head of the World Health Organization says the swine flu outbreak in Mexico and the United States could develop into a pandemic.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan says the outbreak involves "an animal strain of the H1N1 virus, and it has pandemic potential."
Chan says it is too early to say whether a pandemic will actually occur.
The global health body has advised countries around the world to look out for similar outbreaks following the discovery of related strains on both sides of the Mexico-U.S. border.

At least 62 people in Mexico have died from pneumonia after contracting a flu-like virus. WHO says some tested positive for a strain that sickened at least seven in the southwestern U.S. No deaths have been reported in the U.S.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.
GENEVA (AP) — The World Health Organization has called an emergency meeting of experts Saturday to consider declaring an international public health emergency over the swine flu outbreak believed to have killed dozens of people in Mexico and sickened at least seven in the U.S.

It is the first time the WHO's Director-General Margaret Chan has convened such a crisis panel since the procedure was created almost two years ago, spokesman Gregory Hartl said.

The committee may decide Saturday that the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency, and if so, whether WHO should consider measures including travel advisories, trade restrictions and border closures.

The global body's flu pandemic alert level is now set to phase three — meaning there is no or very limited risk of a new virus spreading from human to human.

The committee "will be asked, 'should we raise the alert level to phase four or phase five,' depending on their appreciation of how far the virus has spread," Hartl said.
An increased alert level was considered likely, as initial evidence from the outbreak in Mexico indicates the virus has spread between people. Hartl said, however, that a decision would not be made Saturday.

At least 62 people have died from severe pneumonia caused by a flu-like illness in Mexico, according to WHO. Some of those who died are confirmed to have contracted a type of swine flu known as A/H1N1. That particular flu variant has not previously been seen in pigs or humans, though other types of H1N1 have.

"This is a very high concern for us as the world's global health organization," Hartl said.

The current seasonal flu vaccine is not believed to offer any protection against this new swine flu. But anti-viral drug Tamiflu appears to be fully effective against the H1N1 virus, and "Mexico and the United States already have large stocks of Tamiflu," Hartl said.( my mistake earlier I though I had read somewhere that Tanilu was not effective)

The virus has caused alarm in Mexico, where more than 1,000 people have been sickened. Authorities there have closed schools, museums, libraries and theaters in a bid to contain the outbreak.

WHO, which has been monitoring the situation since Thursday, said 12 of the Mexican cases have been confirmed as genetically identical to a swine flu virus detected in California.

U.S. authorities said seven people were infected with swine flu in California and Texas, and all recovered.

"We do seem to have found incidents of the same illness, which is swine influenza A/H1N1, on both sides of the border in various locations," Hartl said.

WHO has sent experts to Mexico to monitor the situation there, and asked countries to report any unusual flu outbreaks.

"We are at the beginning of the outbreak here, and there are a lot of things that we still don't know," Hartl said.

"We're not sure exactly of the transmission routes, where the initial infection came from, how efficient it is in transmitting," he said. WHO is also questioning "why no one has died in the United States so far whereas there have been confirmed deaths in Mexico."

WHO chief Chan broke off a visit to Washington, where she was to meet with U.S. officials, to oversee WHO's response to the crisis from its Strategic Health Operation Center in Switzerland.

The virus appears to cause flu-like symptoms that can develop into severe pneumonia, Hartl said, urging anyone to visit a doctor if they had been to affected areas and were feeling symptoms.

"You would want to take the same kind of precautions that you would do with pneumonia and an influenza-like illness," he said.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i_AZWy_CmwkfQ17w1-rP99e3xZnwD97PH4480

[obleo]

"At least 62 people in Mexico have died from pneumonia after contracting a flu-like virus."


THIS is why you get the PNEUMONIA shot and NOT the flu shot!

[Is45]

On a related topic, I posted that Bush had read a book about the Spanish flu pandemic the summer of 2005...
and I posted an article about the book.


Here are some interesting excerpts from that article:


************************************************** *

" Even though it killed at least 40 million people in less than a year, the 1918 influenza pandemic's most alarming feature may have been that it nearly extinguished the basic humanitarian impulses that bind civil society together.

So says John Barry, author of The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History (Viking 2004). Barry was at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health March 2 to talk about history's most calamitous infectious disease pandemic, which killed more people in 24 weeks during 1918—1919 than AIDS has in 24 years.

According to Barry, those still healthy were too panicked by the disease's violent symptoms (rib-cracking coughing spells, intense pain, a cyanosis of the skin so deep blue its like has never been seen since) to even look in on their ill neighbors. Some of the sick, and their children with them, simply starved to death for lack of attention.

Barry quoted one health official after he had failed to recruit a single volunteer: "Nothing seems to rouse them. Children are starving and still they hold back." Even in tight-knit rural communities, says Barry, neighbors didn't rally 'round.

He also quoted Victor Vaughan, Surgeon General of the Army at the time—not, according to Barry, some flibbertigibbet given to impulsive pronouncements. In October 1918, Vaughan said, "If the epidemic continues its mathematical rate of acceleration, civilization could easily disappear from the face of the earth within a few weeks."

Photographs taken of big cities at the time reveal virtual ghost towns: empty sidewalks and streets, with only a few mask-wearing city workers or an ambulance in sight. Some municipalities made it a crime to shake hands. "

***********************************************



Can you imagine something like this coming on the heels of the economic crisis...
the global economy would absolutely collapse.


Even if the flu pandemic was faked... fear of being in public places [no shopping,
no eating out, no going to work] would absolutely collapse the the world economy.


Maybe this is the plan.


~

[kelee877]

I think I put post number 8 in the wrong thread....:oops:

[Is45]

I think I put post number 8 in the wrong thread....:oops:



I'm glad you did... it was very interesting.


~

[snowman41]

Snowy,
I don't think ANY company is going to care about the flu, they are more worried about their bottom line. If the flu hits their company there are many more unemployed to take their places. JMHO
Gib

Gib,

They cannot easily replace anyone that takes more than a day or two of training to do the job, unless they're dead and then they have no choice.

I'm thinking people like airline crews, air traffic control, doctors, nurses, power plant operators, engineers, military, etc. Most of those are still working anyway.

Snowy

[johngaltfla]

Snowy if it does turn into a pandemic or epidemic the economic damage will be so severe that a declaration of martial law AND the imposition of wage and price controls will be a given.

Our lives will change drastically as it could be the difference between -6% GDP and -12% or worse GDP....

[Hermit]

If this flu becomes a full pandemic, it will be the final nail in the coffin of this economy.

TEOTWAWKI may be sooner than we think.

Any morning we wake up now can be martial law.

[susie0884]

Snowy if it does turn into a pandemic or epidemic the economic damage will be so severe that a declaration of martial law AND the imposition of wage and price controls will be a given.

Our lives will change drastically as it could be the difference between -6% GDP and -12% or worse GDP....

Absolutely.

First think airlines, movie theatres, sports events (especially indoors), crowded malls, casinos, etc. Mostly all the places that are already hurting. And those are places that will be hurt just from the FEAR of a pandemic--before it actually is realized.

[Freeholder]

" Even though it killed at least 40 million people in less than a year, the 1918 influenza pandemic's most alarming feature may have been that it nearly extinguished the basic humanitarian impulses that bind civil society together.

According to Barry, those still healthy were too panicked by the disease's violent symptoms (rib-cracking coughing spells, intense pain, a cyanosis of the skin so deep blue its like has never been seen since) to even look in on their ill neighbors. Some of the sick, and their children with them, simply starved to death for lack of attention.

Barry quoted one health official after he had failed to recruit a single volunteer: "Nothing seems to rouse them. Children are starving and still they hold back." Even in tight-knit rural communities, says Barry, neighbors didn't rally 'round.

This may have been true in some places, but not all. My grandmother was alive during the 1918 Flu epidemic (although she was only five years old). She says that most folks in her isolated farming community never got it, but one man, returning from the army, came home sick. Evidently the community already knew about the epidemic, because they isolated him in an un-used house, and three neighborhood men, including Grandma's father, took it on themselves to care for the ill man. Everyone brought food, or clean clothing/linens as needed, and put them in the yard, and the men tending the ill man would go out to get the stuff. My great-grandfather did catch the flu from the ill man, although he had a fairly mild case. I don't know about the other two; Grandma said that the returned army veteran was the only one in their community who died of the flu, though.

Kathleen

[Samurai Jane]

Unemployment numbers must be declining: apparently they are hiring more help and working double shifts at the government fear factories.

[momof23goats]

Snowy if it does turn into a pandemic or epidemic the economic damage will be so severe that a declaration of martial law AND the imposition of wage and price controls will be a given.

Our lives will change drastically as it could be the difference between -6% GDP and -12% or worse GDP....

Thank you John, I was thinking the same thing .

[BuffaloCreek]

Snowy if it does turn into a pandemic or epidemic the economic damage will be so severe that a declaration of martial law AND the imposition of wage and price controls will be a given.

Our lives will change drastically as it could be the difference between -6% GDP and -12% or worse GDP....
Absolutely 1000+

The economy is slowing down considerably just from reduced employment and fear of unemployment, but commerce is still happening. Quarantine a large portion of the population for any period of time and we slip off of the razor's edge we currently find our economy balancing on.

[Bethshaya]

Snowy,
I don't think ANY company is going to care about the flu, they are more worried about their bottom line. If the flu hits their company there are many more unemployed to take their places. JMHO
Gib

How are those unemployed going to get to the job if a national quarantine is called?

This will effect many companies who need face to face customers to survive.

Many, if not most, larger companies have pandemic continuity plans. I know our company does. Who know which people need to go in, which need to stay at home. I am just an Admin and they have recently given me a laptop to take home, even though I use a desktop at work, so that just in case it gets worse, I can work from home.

[Spike n Ree]

Last year the rain and flooding was the problem at the spring planting, with this flu starting now I wonder how this will effect planting this spring? I hope they consider this.

[cyberiot]

Based on what happened during the SARS outbreak, I suspect tourism and its supporting industries are toast.

[Is45]

On a related topic, I posted that Bush had read a book about the Spanish flu pandemic the summer of 2005...
and I posted an article about the book.


Here are some interesting excerpts from that article:


************************************************** *

" Even though it killed at least 40 million people in less than a year, the 1918 influenza pandemic's most alarming feature may have been that it nearly extinguished the basic humanitarian impulses that bind civil society together.

So says John Barry, author of The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History (Viking 2004). Barry was at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health March 2 to talk about history's most calamitous infectious disease pandemic, which killed more people in 24 weeks during 1918—1919 than AIDS has in 24 years.

According to Barry, those still healthy were too panicked by the disease's violent symptoms (rib-cracking coughing spells, intense pain, a cyanosis of the skin so deep blue its like has never been seen since) to even look in on their ill neighbors. Some of the sick, and their children with them, simply starved to death for lack of attention.

Barry quoted one health official after he had failed to recruit a single volunteer: "Nothing seems to rouse them. Children are starving and still they hold back." Even in tight-knit rural communities, says Barry, neighbors didn't rally 'round.

He also quoted Victor Vaughan, Surgeon General of the Army at the time—not, according to Barry, some flibbertigibbet given to impulsive pronouncements. In October 1918, Vaughan said, "If the epidemic continues its mathematical rate of acceleration, civilization could easily disappear from the face of the earth within a few weeks."

Photographs taken of big cities at the time reveal virtual ghost towns: empty sidewalks and streets, with only a few mask-wearing city workers or an ambulance in sight. Some municipalities made it a crime to shake hands. "

***********************************************



Can you imagine something like this coming on the heels of the economic crisis...
the global economy would absolutely collapse.


Even if the flu pandemic was faked... fear of being in public places [no shopping,
no eating out, no going to work] would absolutely collapse the the world economy.


Maybe this is the plan.


~


The author of this book, John Barry, was on the Glenn Beck show this afternoon.


~