Swine Flu 4/26 Hard News Only

[Peter]

From survivalblog.com:
The Mexican Flu and You




</STRONG>In the past 24 hours I've received dozens of e-mails from SurvivalBlog readers about the emerging Mexican Flu. Some news stories have included cryptic comments from heath officials, implying that the mechanism of infection makes this particular virus "very difficult to contain." This leads me to conclude that those infected have a long latency period during which they are infectious, yet, they do not display frank symptoms. This does not bode well for any hopes of containing the spread of the virus.
Then we hear a CDC official stating (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWVM4e9IDstg&refer=worldwide): "The swine flu virus contains four different gene segments representing both North American swine and avian influenza, human flu and a Eurasian swine flu." That strikes we as something very peculiar.
The disease is respiratory, and has one strong similarity to the 1918 Spanish Flu: "The majority were young adults between 25 and 45 years old," said one official under the condition of anonymity. Since, young and healthy people with strong immune systems are the most likely to succumb, this might indicate that the biggest killer is a cytokene storm--a collapse caused by the human immune system's over-reaction to a pathogen.
I strongly recommend that everyone reading this take the time to re-read my background article on flu self-quarantine and other precautions: Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic (http://www.survivalblog.com/asianflu.html). The details that I give there are quite important. Pay special attention to my discussion of the shortage of hospital ventilators. If anyone in your family is immunosuppressed, consider yourselves on alert. Make your final preparations to hunker down, immediately.
In the next few days, there is a good chance of wholesale panic, including some well-publicized "runs" --probably first for hand sanitizer and face masks, and soon after for bottled water and groceries. Plan on it.
UPDATE: The BBC News web page Mexico flu: Your experiences (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm) has some updates posted from individuals in Mexico City
To summarize, here are some key quotes from a recent article (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090425/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/med_swine_flu):
"This outbreak is particularly worrisome because deaths have happened in at least four different regions of Mexico, and because the victims have not been vulnerable infants and elderly.

"The most notorious flu pandemic, thought to have killed at least 40 million people worldwide in 1918-19, also first struck otherwise healthy young adults."
...
"But it may be too late to contain the outbreak, given how widespread the known cases are. If the confirmed deaths are the first signs of a pandemic, then cases are probably incubating around the world by now, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, a pandemic flu expert at the University of Minnesota.

"No vaccine specifically protects against swine flu, and it is unclear how much protection current human flu vaccines might offer."
Current statistics show a less than 10% lethality rate, but of course the first wave of flu victims are getting access to the best medical care available. If the contagion spreads, sheer numbers will quickly overwhelm hospital facilities--particularly the number of mechanical ventilators available. So the lethality rate may rise, even if there is not a viral mutation.
Here are the latest headlines on the flu, as well as some background pieces. I'll post more links, as they become available.
Swine Flu, Mexico Lung Illness Heighten Pandemic Risk (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWVM4e9IDstg&refer=worldwide)
Swine flu could infect U.S. trade and travel (http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN2443181920090424)
Mexico Races to Stop Deadly Flu Virus (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124058255179552887.html)

Spanish Flu Survivors Remember (http://rense.com/general85/span.htm)

Some Facts About Past Flu Pandemics (http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE53N5NM20090424?sp=true)

WHO ready with antivirals to combat swine flu (http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE53N5ZZ20090424?feedType=RSS&feedName=healthNews&rpc=22&sp=true)

Possible Swine Flu Outbreak at NYC Prep School (http://wcco.com/health/swine.flu.nyc.2.994094.html)

California Expects To Find More New Flu Cases (http://uk.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUKN24459334)

Swine Flu Jitters Sparks Sell-Off In US Hogs (http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE53N6CT20090424)

Swine Flu Resources (http://www.healthnewsblog.com/swinefluresources/)

Most Mexico fatal flu victims aged between 25-45 (http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N24449988.htm)
Swine Flu May Be Named Event of ‘International Concern’ by WHO (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atHtXtCigRII&refer=worldwide)
[A UK] County's masterplan to deal with flu pandemic (http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/news/County-s-masterplan-deal-flu-pandemic/article-935704-detail/article.html)

[Peter]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8019100.stm


Mexico flu sparks worldwide fear




Mexican authorities have taken drastic measures to contain a new strain of the swine flu virus that has killed 81 and prompted fears of a global pandemic. People are being urged to stay at home and maintain strict personal hygiene. Many schools, public buildings, bars and restaurants have been closed.
Non-fatal cases have been confirmed in the US and are likely in New Zealand.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed that at least some of the cases are a new strain of the virus.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif


H1N1 is the same strain that causes seasonal flu outbreaks in humans, but the newly detected version contains genetic material from versions of flu which usually affect pigs and birds.
The respiratory virus - which infects pigs but only sporadically humans - is spread mainly through coughs and sneezes.
The WHO has warned the virus has the potential to become a pandemic.
Suspected outbreaks
Although all of the deaths so far have been in Mexico, the flu is spreading in the United States and suspected cases have been detected elsewhere:


Eleven confirmed infections in the US
In addition, eight suspected cases are being investigated at a New York City high school where about 200 students fell mildly ill with flu-like symptoms
Ten New Zealand students are among a group which travelled to Mexico have tested positive for influenza A - making it "likely", though not definite, that they are infected with swine flu, said Health Minister Tony Ryall
In France, a top health official told Le Parisien newspaper there were unconfirmed suspicions that two individuals who had just returned from Mexico may be carrying the virus
But a UK hospital conducting tests for swine flu on a British Airways cabin crew member said the tests proved negative.
Mexico shutdown
The Mexican government, which has faced criticism for what some see as a slow reaction to this outbreak, is now taking an increasingly hard line to try to contain the virus, says the BBC's Stephen Gibbs in Mexico City.
Public buildings have been closed and hundreds of public events suspended.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif It's eerily quiet here in the capital. Lots of people with masks http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


BBC reader Dr Duncan Wood, Mexico City

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/inline_dashed_line.gif

Read more experiences (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm)
Send us your comments (http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?forumID=6395&edition=1)

Schools in and around Mexico City have been closed until 6 May, and some 70% of bars and restaurants in the capital have been temporarily closed.
People are being strongly urged to avoid shaking hands, and the US embassy has advised visitors to the country to keep at least six feet (1.8m) from other people.
Mexico's Health Secretary, Jose Cordova, said a total of 1,324 people had been admitted to hospital with suspected symptoms since 13 April and were being tested for the virus.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifPANDEMIC CRITERIA
Virus can infect people
It can easily spread person-to-person
No immunity in humans

"In that same period, 81 deaths were recorded probably linked to the virus but only in 20 cases we have the laboratory tests to confirm it," he said.
Mexico's President Felipe Calderon has announced emergency measures to deal with the situation.
They include powers to isolate individuals suspected of having the virus without fear of legal repercussions.


Advertisement

In Mexico, face masks are handed out, while the head of the WHO voices concern

'International concern'
In the US, seven people in California, two people in Texas, and two people in Kansas have been infected with the new strain.

Authorities around the world are increasingly vigilant

In New York, city health commissioner Dr Thomas Frieden said preliminary tests conducted on the ailing students showed they were possible cases of swine flu.
Further tests will clarify if it was the same strain that was detected in the other three states.
Following a meeting of its emergency committee on Saturday, the WHO said the virus had the potential to become a pandemic but it was too early to say whether that would happen.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifFLU PANDEMICS
1918: The Spanish flu pandemic remains the most devastating outbreak of modern times - infecting up to 40% of the world's population and killing more than 50m people, with young adults particularly badly affected



1957: Asian flu killed two million people. Caused by a human form of the virus, H2N2, combining with a mutated strain found in wild ducks. The elderly were particularly vulnerable



1968: An outbreak first detected in Hong Kong, and caused by a strain known as H3N2, killed up to one million people globally, with those over 65 most likely to die

WHO Director General Margaret Chan said recent events constituted "a public health emergency of international concern" and that countries needed to co-operate in heightening surveillance.
The WHO is advising all countries to be vigilant for seasonally unusual flu or pneumonia-like symptoms among their populations - particularly among young healthy adults, a characteristic of past pandemics.
Officials said most of those killed so far in Mexico were young adults - rather than more vulnerable children and the elderly.
There is currently no vaccine for the new strain but severe cases can be treated with antiviral medication.
It is unclear how effective currently available flu vaccines would be at offering protection against the new strain, as it is genetically distinct from other flu strains.

[Peter]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gnGyxVMQxYHNqDfUaLOZlicWiLWA
Asia on alert as swine flu threat spreads
4 hours ago
HONG KONG (AFP) — Asian health officials went on alert Sunday as a flu strain that has killed dozens of people in Mexico appeared to have spread to New Zealand, underscoring warnings of a potential pandemic.
Governments across the region, which has in recent years been at the forefront of the SARS and bird flu epidemics, stepped up checks at airports and urged the public to be on guard for symptoms of the new multi-strain flu.
Ten New Zealand students who recently travelled to Mexico are "likely" to have contracted swine fever, Health Minister Tony Ryall said Sunday -- the first suspected cases in the region of more than three billion people.
They were among a group of three teachers and 22 students from Auckland who returned home on Saturday. Thirteen students and one teacher had displayed flu-like symptoms and were quarantined in their homes while undergoing tests.
"Ministry of Health officials advise me there is no guarantee these students have swine influenza, but they consider it likely," Ryall said.
Samples from the students, who already tested positive for influenza A, were being sent to a World Health Organisation (WHO) laboratory in Melbourne, Australia to determine whether they had swine flu, Ryall said.
Mexican officials said the death toll from the new strain had probably risen to 81, while 10 people were believed infected in the United States and there were two possible cases in France.
The WHO warned Saturday that the virus had the potential to become a pandemic, labelling the current outbreak "a public health emergency of international concern."
In Japan, airports tightened checks on passengers arriving from Mexico, with quarantine officials giving out face masks and using thermography imaging cameras to screen passengers for signs of fever.
Health officials handed out leaflets to those headed for Mexico and the United States, urging them to wear face masks and wash their hands regularly, while a health ministry hotline attracted some 400 calls.
Agriculture minister Shigeru Ishiba appealed for calm, saying that the drug Tamiflu "is very effective. We have enough stockpiles in Japan."
South Korea followed suit, ordering all passengers on flights from virus-hit nations to pass through a strengthened quarantine check with a test kit at the airports.
Authorities also put Mexican and US pork in quarantine to check for the disease.
Australia urged people who had recently returned from Mexico and had developed flu-like symptoms to seek medical advice.
China and Hong Kong bore the brunt of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 that killed nearly 800 people, most of them in Asia, bringing air travel here to a near-standstill and battering the region's economies.
The same year, the H5N1 strain of bird flu re-appeared in Asia.
It has since killed 257 people, according to the World Health Organisation, and officials have long warned that the virus could become a global pandemic if it mutates into a form that is easily transmissible between humans.
The Chinese health ministry said it was "paying close attention" to the situation, studying inspection and quarantine measures to guard against the spread of the latest flu strain.
In Hong Kong, health officials said checks at border crossings had been stepped up and that airlines had been asked to broadcast messages on all flights coming direct from affected areas.
Indonesia, which has recorded the most deaths from bird flu of any country, said it was checking that thermoscanners were working at all ports and airports.
Thailand's Public Health Minister, Witthaya Kaewparadai, said authorities were "monitoring the epidemic closely" and advised people travelling to Mexico and the United States to take advice from the ministry.
Highlighting the potential role of international air travel in spreading the virus, a British Airways cabin crew staff member was being treated in a London hospital with flu-like symptoms after arriving on a flight from Mexico City.

[Peter]

http://www.businessinsider.com/swine-flu-pandemic-would-cost-trillions-2009-4 (http://www.businessinsider.com/swine-flu-pandemic-would-cost-trillions-2009-4)



Swine Flu Pandemic Would Cost Trillions

John Carney (http://www.businessinsider.com/john-carney)|Apr. 25, 2009, 7:16 PM|http://static.10gen.com/businessinsider/assets/images/icons/icon_comment_12x12.gif?ctxt=www2009-04-23-01-23a2767b2a449fa374d5ef55a40f4db320f6406c&lm=1234385166000 (http://www.businessinsider.com/swine-flu-pandemic-would-cost-trillions-2009-4#comments)8 (http://www.businessinsider.com/swine-flu-pandemic-would-cost-trillions-2009-4#comments)
Print (javascript:window.print())
Tags: Economy (http://www.businessinsider.com/economy), The Way We Live Now (http://www.businessinsider.com/the-way-we-live-now), Health (http://www.businessinsider.com/health), Medicine (http://www.businessinsider.com/medicine), Recession (http://www.businessinsider.com/recession)

This afternoon, the WHO declaredthat the swine flu outbreak in Mexico and the U.S. is a health emergency of international concern.
Reuters has put together a list (http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE53O0WO20090425) of estimates of the economics costs that may be incurred if swine flu becomes a full out pandemic.


The World Bank estimated in 2008 that a flu pandemic could cost $3 trillion and result in a nearly 5 percent drop in world gross domestic product. The World Bank has estimated that more than 70 million people could die worldwide in a severe pandemic.


Australian independent think-tank Lowy Institute for International Policy estimated in 2006 that in the worst-case scenario, a flu pandemic could wipe $4.4 trillion off global economic output.


Two reports in the United States in 2005 estimated that a flu pandemic could cause a serious recession of the U.S. economy, with immediate costs of between $500 billion and $675 billion.


One report, from the Congressional Budget Office, said hospitals would have difficulty controlling infection and might become sources for spreading the illness.


A second report by New Jersey-based WBB Securities LLC predicted a one-year economic loss of $488 billion and a permanent economic loss of $1.4 trillion to the U.S. economy.


SARS in 2003 disrupted travel, trade and the workplace and cost the Asia Pacific region $40 billion. It lasted for six months, killing 775 of the 8,000 people it infected in 25 countri


Between the autumn of 1918 and the spring of 1919, 548,452 people died of swine flu in the US.

[Peter]

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N25473389.htm
New flu has spread widely, cannot be contained-CDC
25 Apr 2009 17:45:00 GMT
Source: Reuters

</SPAN>WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - An unusual new flu virus has spread widely and cannot be contained, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed on Saturday.
"It is clear that this is widespread. And that is why we have let you know that we cannot contain the spread of this virus," the CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat told reporters on a conference call.
The strain of swine flu is suspected of killing as many as 68 people in Mexico and infecting more than 1,000 more, including eight in the United States. (Reporting by Maggie Fox, editing by Patricia Zengerle)

[Peter]

Mex City Hospital Email -
Flu WORSE Than Said
San Diego County - 'Stay Home If You Feel Sick'
From Edgar J. Steele
4-25-9 Ok, folks - Now this is beginning to get serious. The death level in Mexico has ratcheted to over 80, per two-day-old news, and I've just received a report of an outbreak in New York (not in the article below, which is noteworthy for discussing the various alert levels). This would be a good time to go to the store and stock up for a self-quarantine in your home of up to a month or so. If this blossoms beyond what already has occurred in California, Texas and, now, New York, I'm pulling up my own drawbridge for the duration. If I lived in California or any state bordering Mexico (or metro NY, from which there now is an unsubstantiated outbreak report), I already would be back from the store with my supplies and would have closed the front door for the duration. For what it's worth: An hour ago, I received an email purporting to be from a doctor at a Mexico City hospital, who claimed that things there are much worse than being reported, with thousands already infected. Maybe this will blow over by early next week or maybe we will see it mushroom. Whether this is the pandemic I have forecast for many years (read my book) or not, rest assured that it is coming. If not now, then later this year or next year. Mark my words well. I have been wrong about very little in what I have forecast for America in recent years, a forecast made before the good times peaked, even. What should concern you, though, is not about what I have been right so far, but what I have forecast for the coming months and years. The timing is right for an engineered disease pandemic just like what Dick Cheney repeatedly promised for us, not to mention a world war. Mexico is on the verge of collapsing into a 5-drug-cartel ruling junta "government" and the American dollar is on its very last legs. There is an anti-government movement spreading across America (witness today's "Audit the Fed" demonstrations). Precious metals, especially silver stocks (especially CDE, which I recently recommended at about .60 and which now is over double that), surged dramatically on Thursday and Friday. Tomorrow night's overseas markets should foreshadow what will happen on Wall Street Monday morning and that likely will tell us all we need to know about just how serious this might become. You may feel that ignoring market dynamics is ok because you have no investments, but remember that economics and general society are just two sides of the same coin, with economics being the far easier read. steele@conspiracypenpal.com

[doctor_fungcool]

http://www.lanl.gov/news/images/bird4x3red.mov

About 85 days....see this VID.

LOS ALAMOS, N.M., April 3, 2006 — Using supercomputers to respond to a potential national health emergency, scientists have developed a simulation model that makes stark predictions about the possible future course of an avian influenza pandemic, given today’s environment of world-wide connectivity. The research, by a team of scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, is presented in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science online the week of April 3-7, and in the print issue of April 11.

The large-scale, stochastic simulation model examines the nationwide spread of a pandemic influenza virus strain, such as an evolved avian H5N1 virus, should it become transmissible human-to-human. The simulation rolls out a city- and census-tract-level picture of the spread of infection through a synthetic population of 281 million people over the course of 180 days, and examines the impact of interventions, from antiviral therapy to school closures and travel restrictions, as the vaccine industry struggles to catch up with the evolving virus.
"Sad when even Thomas Jefferson would'nt be elected today"
Avian Subscriber
Tick Tock June 2009 U think I am kidding?
User ID: 464853
4/25/2009 3:02 PM

Re: Pandemic Flu Simulation Model...a must see!! Quote

How it all computes

The computer simulation models a synthetic population that matches U.S. census demographics and worker mobility data by randomly assigning the simulated individuals to households, workplaces, schools, and the like. Department of Transportation travel data is used to model long-distance trips during the course of the simulation, realistically capturing the spread of the pandemic virus by airplane and other passenger travel across the United States.

“In the highly mobile U.S. population, travel restrictions alone will not be enough to stop the spread; a mixture of many mitigation strategies is more likely to be effective than a few strictly enforced ones,” said Kadau, also of Los Alamos’ Theoretical Division.

The model of disease transmission involves probabilities that any two people in a community will meet on any given day in any one of a number of settings, such as home or workplace. Thus, simulated disease transmission is more likely for two people in the same household and less likely for two people who have less in common. “So we are only computing the probability of any person becoming infected on any given day, and a roll of the dice is needed to decide whether they are infected or not,” said Germann.

Other elements of randomness modify the simulated disease course. A significant fraction of infected people (33 percent in the present model) never develop clinical symptoms, although they are themselves infectious. In addition, the durations of the incubation and infectious periods can vary and are randomly chosen from distribution functions for each individual, involving more throws of the virtual dice.

“Computer models serve as virtual laboratories where researchers can study how infectious diseases might spread and what intervention strategies may lessen the impact of a real outbreak,” said Jeremy M. Berg, director of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences. “This new work exemplifies the power of such models and could aid policymakers and health officials as they plan for a possible future pandemic.”

The pandemic simulation model has been implemented in the Laboratory’s celebrated Scalable Parallel Short-range Molecular dynamics (SPaSM) large-scale simulation platform developed for the nuclear weapons program. It runs on the Los Alamos supercomputer known as Pink, a 1,024-node (2,048 processor) LinuxBIOS/BProc “Science Appliance” running Clustermatic 3, the largest single-system image Linux cluster in the world. Pink's nodes have dual 2.4 GHz Intel Xeon processors (Pentium 4) with 2 gigabytes of memory per node. The purchase of the Science Appliance was funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration's Advanced Simulation and Computing program.Pink is currently a system software research platform, a science appliance cluster concept invented at Los Alamos in the Computer and Computational Science Division. Los Alamos has four science appliance clusters in use at this time for a variety of projects across the full range of Laboratory mission areas.

[doctor_fungcool]

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/index.php?

Bookmark...

[Libbybear2]

Thanks Doc, I bookmarked the flutracker site. Keep up the good work and I love your avatar too. I always look for it. LOL