National Security and the Threat of Climate Change

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LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL• SecurityAndClimate.cna.org
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MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD
General Gordon R. Sullivan, USA (Ret.)
Chairman, Military Advisory Board
Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret.)
Lieutenant General Lawrence P. Farrell Jr., USAF (Ret.)
Vice Admiral Paul G. Gaffney II, USN (Ret.)
General Paul J. Kern, USA (Ret.)
Admiral T. Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret.)
Admiral Donald L. “Don” Pilling, USN (Ret.)
Admiral Joseph W. Prueher, USN (Ret.)
Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly, USN (Ret.)
General Charles F. “Chuck” Wald, USAF (Ret.)
General Anthony C. “Tony” Zinni, USMC (Ret.)
To the reader,
During our decades of experience in the U.S. military, we have addressed many
national security challenges, from containment and deterrence of the Soviet
nuclear threat during the Cold War to terrorism and extremism in recent years.
Global climate change presents a new and very different type of national
security challenge.
Over many months and meetings, we met with some of the world’s leading
climate scientists, business leaders, and others studying climate change. We viewed their work through the lens of our military experience as warfighters,
planners, and leaders. Our discussions have been lively, informative, and
very sobering.
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are greater now than at any time in the past 650,000 years, and average global temperature has continued a steady rise. This rise presents the prospect of significant climate change, and while
uncertainty exists and debate continues regarding the science and future extent
of projected climate changes, the trends are clear.
The nature and pace of climate changes being observed today and the
consequences projected by the consensus scientific opinion are grave and pose equally grave implications for our national security. Moving beyond the arguments of cause and effect, it is important that the U.S. military begin planning to address these potentially devastating effects. The consequences of climate change can affect the organization, training, equipping, and planning of the military services. The U.S. military has a clear obligation to determine the potential impacts of climate change on its ability to execute its missions in support of national security objectives.
Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national security
challenges for the United States. Accordingly, it is appropriate to start now to
help mitigate the severity of some of these emergent challenges. The decision
to act should be made soon in order to plan prudently for the nation’s security. The increasing risks from climate change should be addressed now because they will almost certainly get worse if we delay.

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GENERAL GORDON R. SULLIVAN, USA (Ret.)
Former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army
Chairman, Military Advisory Board
ADMIRAL FRANK “SKIP” BOWMAN, USN (Ret.)
Former Director, Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program;
Former Deputy Administrator-Naval Reactors, National Nuclear Security Administration
LIEUTENANT GENERAL LAWRENCE P. FARRELL JR., USAF (Ret.)
Former Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, Headquarters U.S. Air Force
VICE ADMIRAL PAUL G. GAFFNEY II, USN (Ret.)
Former President, National Defense University; Former Chief of Naval Research and Commander,
Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command
GENERAL PAUL J. KERN, USA (Ret.)
Former Commanding General, U.S. Army Materiel Command
ADMIRAL T. JOSEPH LOPEZ, USN (Ret.)
Former Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Naval Forces Europe and of Allied Forces, Southern Europe
ADMIRAL DONALD L. “DON” PILLING, USN (Ret.)
Former Vice Chief of Naval Operations
ADMIRAL JOSEPH W. PRUEHER, USN (Ret.)
Former Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) and Former U.S. Ambassador to China
VICE ADMIRAL RICHARD H. TRULY, USN (Ret.)
Former NASA Administrator, Shuttle Astronaut and the first Commander of the Naval Space Command
GENERAL CHARLES F. “CHUCK” WALD, USAF (Ret.)
Former Deputy Commander, Headquarters U.S. European Command (USEUCOM)
GENERAL ANTHONY C. “TONY” ZINNI, USMC (Ret.)
Former Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)
SHERRI W. GOODMAN
Executive Director, Military Advisory Board
The CNA Corporation
Study Team
David M. Catarious Jr.
Ronald Filadelfo
Henry Gaffney
Sean Maybee
Thomas Morehouse
THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD
THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org
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We are thankful to several people for their support of this effort. Rear Adm. Richard Pittenger, USN (Ret.) of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
and Dr. Fiona Horsfall of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration provided many valuable insights into climate science and reviewed our draft report. Dr. Robert Frosch, former assistant secretary of the Navy for research and development and former NASA administrator, currently at Harvard University, also reviewed our draft report and provided suggestions for improvement regarding the science of climate change. Dr. Kent Butts of the Army War College, Dr. Geoffrey D. Dabelko of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and Franklin D. Kramer, former assistant secretary of defense, reviewed our report and provided valuable
comments on sources of conflict and security issues related to climate change.
We thank the following persons for briefing the Military Advisory Board: Dr. James Hansen, lead climate scientist and director, NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies; Dr. Anthony Janetos of the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment; Dr. Richard Moss,
senior director, Climate and Energy, United Nations Foundation, formerly
director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Office; Mr. Justin Mundy, senior advisor to the Special Representative on Climate Change, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office; Maj. Gen. Richard Engel, USAF (Ret.), deputy national intelligence officer for science and technology, National
Intelligence Council; Mr. Randy Overbey, former president, Alcoa Primary Metals Development; Mr. Kenneth Colburn, of the Center for Climate
Strategies; and Dr. Robert Socolow of Princeton University.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
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TABLE OF CONTENTS • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org
TABLE OF CONTENTS
THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
ABOUT THE REPORT 9
Voice of Experience: General Gordon Sullivan (Ret.) on Risk 10
GEO-STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 12
Voice of Experience: Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly (Ret.) on Drawing 14
His Own Conclusions
Voice of Experience: Admiral T. Joseph Lopez (Ret.) on Climate Change 17
and the Conditions for Terrorism
REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 19
Voice of Experience: General Charles F. “Chuck” Wald (Ret.) on Climate Change in Africa 21
Voice of Experience: Vice Admiral Paul G. Gaffney II (Ret.) on Military Research 23
and Climate Science
Voice of Experience: Admiral Joseph W. Prueher (Ret.) on Climate Change in the Pacific 25
Voice of Experience: Lieutenant General Lawrence P. Farrell Jr. (Ret.) on Climate, 26
Energy and Battlefield Readiness
Voice of Experience: General Anthony C. “Tony” Zinni (Ret.) on Climate Change, 31
Instability and Terrorism
Voice of Experience: Admiral Donald L. Pilling (Ret.) on Operational Challenges 33
of Climate Change
Voice of Experience: General Paul J. Kern (Ret.) on Weather, Logistics, 35
and the Causes of War
DIRECT IMPACTS ON MILITARY SYSTEMS, INFRASTRUCTURE, 36
AND OPERATIONS
Voice of Experience: Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman (Ret.) on Climate Change, Energy, 41
and National Security
FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 43
APPENDIX 1: BIOGRAPHIES, MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD MEMBERS 50
APPENDIX 2: CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE—A BRIEF OVERVIEW 56
References 61
The purpose of this study is to examine the
national security consequences of climate change. A dozen of the nation’s most respected retired admirals and generals have served as a Military Advisory Board to study how climate change could affect our nation’s security over the next 30 to 40 years—the time frame for developing new military capabilities.
The specific questions addressed in this report are:
1. What conditions are climate changes likely to produce around the world that would represent security risks to the
United States?
2. What are the ways in which these
conditions may affect America’s national security interests?
3. What actions should the nation take to address the national security consequences of climate change?
The Military Advisory Board hopes these findings will contribute to the call President Bush made in his 2007 State of the Union
address to “...help us to confront the serious challenge of global climate change” by contributing
a new voice and perspective to the issue.
FINDINGS
Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security.
The predicted effects of climate change over
the coming decades include extreme weather events, drought, flooding, sea level rise, retreating
glaciers, habitat shifts, and the increased spread of life-threatening diseases. These conditions have the potential to disrupt our way of life and to force changes in the way we keep ourselves safe and secure.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In the national and international security environment, climate change threatens to add new hostile and stressing factors. On the
simplest level, it has the potential to create
sustained natural and humanitarian disasters on a scale far beyond those we see today. The consequences will likely foster political instability where societal demands exceed the capacity of governments to cope.
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile
regions of the world. Projected climate change will seriously exacerbate already marginal living standards in many Asian, African, and Middle Eastern nations, causing widespread political instability and the likelihood of failed states.
Unlike most conventional security threats that involve a single entity acting in specific ways and points in time, climate change has the
potential to result in multiple chronic conditions, occurring globally within the same time frame. Economic and environmental conditions in already fragile areas will further erode as food production declines, diseases increase, clean water becomes increasingly scarce, and large populations move in search of resources.
Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the
conditions for internal conflicts, extremism, and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies.
The U.S. may be drawn more frequently into these situations, either alone or with allies, to help provide stability before conditions
worsen and are exploited by extremists. The U.S. may also be called upon to undertake
stability and reconstruction efforts once a
conflict has begun, to avert further disaster
and reconstitute a stable environment.
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Projected climate change will add to
tensions even in stable regions of the world. The U.S. and Europe may experience mounting pressure to accept large numbers of immigrant and refugee populations as drought increases and food production declines in Latin America and Africa. Extreme weather events and natural disasters, as the U.S. experienced with Hurricane Katrina, may lead to increased missions for a number of U.S. agencies, including state and local governments, the Department of Homeland Security, and our already stretched military,
including our Guard and Reserve forces.
Climate change, national security, and
energy dependence are a related set of global challenges. As President Bush noted in his 2007 State of the Union speech, dependence
on foreign oil leaves us more vulnerable to hostile
regimes and terrorists, and clean domestic energy alternatives help us confront the serious challenge of global climate change. Because
the issues are linked, solutions to one affect
the other. Technologies that improve energy
efficiency also reduce carbon intensity and
carbon emissions.
RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD:
1. The national security consequences of climate change should be fully integrated into national security and national
defense strategies.
As military leaders, we know we cannot wait for certainty. Failing to act because a warning isn’t precise enough is unacceptable. The intelligence community should incorporate climate
consequences into its National Intelligence
Estimate. The National Security Strategy should directly address the threat of climate change to our national security interests. The National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy should include appropriate guidance to military planners to assess risks to current and future missions caused by projected climate change. The next Quadrennial Defense Review should examine the capabilities of the U.S. military to respond to the consequences of climate change, in particular, preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events, pandemic disease events, and other related missions.
2. The U.S. should commit to a stronger
national and international role to help stabilize climate change at levels that will avoid significant disruption to global
security and stability.
Managing the security impacts of climate change requires two approaches: mitigating the effects we can control and adapting to those
we cannot. The U.S. should become a more
constructive partner with the international community to help build and execute a plan to prevent destabilizing effects from climate change, including setting targets for long term reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
3. The U.S. should commit to global
partnerships that help less developed
nations build the capacity and resiliency to better manage climate impacts.
As President Bush noted in his State of the Union speech, “Our work in the world is also based on a timeless truth: To whom much is given, much is required.” Climate forecasts
indicate countries least able to adapt to the consequences of climate change are those that will be the most affected. The U.S. government should use its many instruments of national influence, including its regional commanders,
to assist nations at risk build the capacity and
resiliency to better cope with the effects of climate change. Doing so now can help avert humanitarian disasters later.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY• SecurityAndClimate.cna.org
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4. The Department of Defense should
enhance its operational capability by accelerating the adoption of improved business processes and innovative technologies
that result in improved U.S. combat power through energy efficiency.
Numerous Department of Defense studies have found that combat forces would be more capable and less vulnerable by significantly
reducing their fuel demand. Unfortunately, many of their recommendations have yet to be implemented. Doing so would have the added benefit of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
5. The Department of Defense should conduct an assessment of the impact on U.S. military installations worldwide of rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other projected climate change
impacts over the next 30 to 40 years.
Many critical defense installations are located on the coast, and several strategically important ones are on low-lying Pacific islands. Sea level rise and storm surges will threaten these facilities. Planning and action can make these installations more resilient. Lack of planning can compromise them or cause them to be inundated, compromising
military readiness and capability.
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ABOUT THE REPORT • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org
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To better inform U.S. policymakers and the public about the threats to national security from global climate change, the CNA Corporation,
a nonprofit national security analysis organization, convened a panel of retired senior military officers and national security experts and conducted an assessment of the national
security implications of global climate change. In this context, we define national security to refer to the influence of climate change on
geo-strategic balances and world events that could likely involve U.S. military forces or
otherwise affect U.S. strategic interests
anywhere in the world.
The Military Advisory Board consisted of retired flag and general officers from all four services, including service chiefs and some who served as regional combatant commanders
(a regional combatant commander is a four-star officer who commands all U.S. forces in a given region of the world). The Military Advisory Board and the study team received briefings from the U.S. intelligence community, climate scientists, and business and state leaders. They also traveled to the United Kingdom to meet with high-level government and business leaders to learn what actions the United Kingdom is taking to address the threat of climate change. Members of the Military Advisory Board also presented their own views, based on experience, of the security effects of climate change on
various regions of the world.
This report documents the results of that effort. We start with a discussion of the
geo-strategic implications of climate change in the general sense—that is, how climate change can foster instability and affect international security. We then apply this background to address specific regional security challenges in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas. That is followed by a discussion of the challenges from climate change that can have a direct impact on military systems and operations. We conclude with a set of findings and recommendations related to mitigation, adaptation, and preparation—specific actions the U.S. government should take in response to the challenges presented by climate change. Appendices provide background on members of the Military Advisory Board, and very briefly summarize the science of climate change and ways in which the earth’s environment may
potentially change.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SCOPE OF THIS STUDY
Although there is a great deal of agreement among the world’s climate scientists regarding the overall picture of a changing climate, there is also some disagreement about the extent of future changes.
Regardless of this continuing discussion, the board’s view is quite clear: The potential consequences
of climate change are so significant that the prudent course of action is to begin now to assess how these changes may potentially affect our national security, and what courses of
action, if any, our nation should take.
This approach shows how a military leader’s perspective often differs from the perspectives of scientists, policymakers, or the media. Military
leaders see a range of estimates and tend not to see it as a stark disagreement, but as evidence of varying degrees of risk. They don’t see the range of possibilities as justification for inaction. Risk is at the heart of their job: They
ABOUT THE REPORT
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VOICES OF EXPERIENCE
During the Cold War, much of America’s defense efforts focused on preventing a
Soviet missile attack—the very definition of a low probability/high consequence event. Our effort to avoid such an unlikely event was a
central organizing principle for our diplomatic and
military strategies.
When asked to compare the risks of climate change with those of the Cold War, Gen. Sullivan said, “The Cold War was a specter, but climate change is inevitable. If we keep on with business as usual, we will reach a point where some of the worst effects are inevitable.”
“If we don’t act, this looks more like a high probability/high consequence scenario,” he added.
Gen. Sullivan shifted from risk assessment to risk management.
“In the Cold War, there was a concerted effort by all leadership—political and military, national and international—to avoid a potential conflict,” he said. “I think it was well known in military
circles that we had to do everything in our power to create an environment where the national command authority—the president and his
senior advisers—were not forced to make choices
regarding the use of nuclear weapons.
“The situation, for much of the Cold War,
was stable,” Gen. Sullivan continued. “And the challenge was to keep it stable, to stop the cata-strophic event from happening. We spent billions on that strategy.
“Climate change is exactly the opposite. We have a catastrophic event that appears to be inevitable.
And the challenge is to stabilize things—to stabilize carbon in the atmosphere. Back then, the challenge was to stop a particular action. Now, the challenge is to inspire a particular action. We have to act if we’re to avoid the worst effects.”
Former U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gordon Sullivan enjoys a good debate. But he also knows there are times when debate must stop and action must begin. With respect to climate change, he says that time has arrived.
“We seem to be standing by and, frankly, asking for perfectness in science,” Gen. Sullivan
said. “People are saying they want to be convinced,
perfectly. They want to know the climate science projections with 100 percent certainty. Well, we know a great deal, and even with
that, there is still uncertainty. But the trend line is very clear.”
“We never have 100 percent certainty,” he said. “We never have it. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield. That’s something we know. You have to act with
incomplete information. You have to act based on the trend line. You have to act on your
intuition sometimes.”
In discussing how military leaders manage risk, Gen. Sullivan noted that significant attention
is often given to the low probability/high consequence
events. These events rarely occur but can have devastating consequences if they do. American families are familiar with these
calculations. Serious injury in an auto accident
is, for most families, a low probability/high
consequence event. It may be unlikely, but
we do all we can to avoid it.
GENERAL GORDON R. SULLIVAN, USA (Ret.)
Chairman, Military Advisory Board | Former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army
ON RISK
“ We never have 100 percent certainty. We never have it. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield.”
assess and manage the many risks to America’s security. Climate change, from the Military Advisory Board’s perspective, presents significant
risks to America’s national security. Before explaining some of those risks, we touch on an important scientific point.
A global average temperature increase of 1.30F (plus or minus 0.30F) occurred over the twentieth century. But the temperature change on its own is not what shapes this security
assessment. Rather, it is the impact that
temperature increases can have on natural
systems, including:
• Habitats
• Precipitation patterns
• Extreme weather events
• Ice cover
• Sea level
Throughout this report, we do not attempt to tie our findings regarding security implications
to any one particular projection of future temperature changes, precipitation changes, or sea level rise whether due to ocean expansion
or ice sheet breakup. Rather, our goal is to
articulate the possible security implications
of climate change and to consider mitigating steps the nation could take as part of an
overall national security plan.
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GEO-STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
One reason human civilizations have grown and flourished over the last five millennia is that the world’s climate has been relatively stable. However, when climates change significantly or environmental conditions deteriorate to the point that necessary resources are not available, societies can become stressed, sometimes to the point of collapse [1].
For those concerned about national security, stability is a primary goal. Maintaining stability within and among nations is often a means of avoiding full-scale military conflicts. Conversely, instability in key areas can threaten our security. For these reasons, a great deal of our national security efforts in the post-World War II era have been focused on protecting stability where it exists and trying to instill it where it does not.
This brings us to the connection between climate change and national security.
As noted, climate change involves much more than temperature increases. It can bring with it many of the kinds of changes in natural systems that have introduced instability among nations throughout the centuries.
In this chapter, we consider some of the ways climate change can be expected to introduce the conditions for social destabilization. The sources of tension and conflict we discuss here are
certainly not solely due to climate change; they have been discussed by the national security
community for many years. However, climate change can exacerbate many of them [2].
For example:
• Some nations may have impaired access
to food and water.
• Violent weather, and perhaps land loss due to rising sea levels and increased storm surges, can damage infrastructure and uproot large numbers of people.
GEO-STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• These changes, and others, may create large number of migrants . When people cross borders
in search of resources, tensions can arise.
• Many governments, even some that look stable today, may be unable to deal with these new stresses. When governments are ineffective, extremism can gain a foothold.
• While the developed world will be far better equipped to deal with the effects of climate change, some of the poorest regions may be affected most. This gap can potentially provide an avenue for extremist ideologies and create the conditions for terrorism.
THE DESTABILIZING IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
REDUCED ACCESS TO FRESH WATER
Adequate supplies of fresh water for drinking, irrigation, and sanitation are the most basic prerequisite for human habitation. Changes in rainfall, snowfall, snowmelt, and glacial melt have significant effects on fresh water supplies, and climate change is likely to affect all of those things. In some areas of the Middle East,
tensions over water already exist.
Mountain glaciers are an especially threatened source of fresh water [3]. A modest rise in
temperature of about 2° to 4°F in mountainous
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When climates change significantly or environmental conditions deteriorate to the point that necessary resources are not available, societies can become stressed, sometimes to the point of collapse.
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VOICES OF EXPERIENCE
Jim Hansen was first talking about these issues,” he said, referring to NASA’s top climate scientist. “But
I was focused elsewhere then, and I should have
listened more closely. I didn’t become a convert until I saw the data on my own.”
“The stresses that climate change will put on our national security will be different than any we’ve dealt with in the past. For one thing, unlike the challenges that we are used to dealing with, these will come upon us extremely slowly, but come they will, and they will be grinding and inexorable. But maybe more challenging is that they will affect
every nation, and all simultaneously. This is why we need to study this issue now, so that we’ll be prepared and not overwhelmed by the required scope of our response when the time comes.”
When asked about his experience twenty-five years ago in space, and how it affects him today, Adm. Truly said, “It does change you, there’s no doubt about it. I have images burned in my mind that will never go away—images of the earth and its fragility. I was a test pilot. I was an aviator.
I was not an environmentalist. But I do love
the natural environment, and seeing the earth from space was the experience that I return
to when I think about what we know now about the climate.”
“One of the things that struck me on my first day in space is that there is no blue sky. It’s something that every human lives with on Earth, but when you’re in space, you don’t see it. It looks like there’s nothing between you and the surface of the earth. And out beyond that, it looks like midnight, with only deep black and stars.”
“But when you look at the earth’s horizon, you see an incredibly beautiful, but very, very thin line. You can see a tiny rainbow of color. That thin line is our atmosphere. And the real fragility of our
atmosphere is that there’s so little of it.”
Retired Vice Adm. Richard H. Truly was a space shuttle commander and NASA administrator and is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.
When he began service as director of the
Department of Energy’s National Renewable
Energy Laboratory in 1997, he reminded his
staff that he would be confronted with a new set of issues.
“I told them that I was unencumbered with
experience or knowledge of the energy business, and that I would need their help,” Adm. Truly said. “I had a pretty steep learning curve.”
One of the first issues he was asked to consider was the extent to which fossil fuel emissions were affecting the climate.
“I was a total agnostic,” Truly said. “I had spent most of my life in the space and aeronautics world, and hadn’t really wrestled with this. I was open-minded.”
“Over the course of the next few years, I started really paying attention to the data. When I looked at what energy we had used over the past couple
of centuries and what was in the atmosphere
today, I knew there had to be a connection. I wasn’t convinced by a person or any interest group—it was the data that got me. As I looked at it on my own, I couldn’t come to any other conclusion. Once I got past that point, I was utterly convinced of this connection between the burning of fossil fuels and climate change. And I was convinced that if we didn’t do something about this, we would be in deep trouble.”
Adm. Truly noted an ironic twist about his path to this conclusion. “I was NASA administrator when
“ I wasn’t convinced by a person or
any interest group—it was the data
that got me.”
VICE ADMIRAL RICHARD H. TRULY, USN (Ret.)
Former NASA Administrator, Shuttle Astronaut and the first Commander of the Naval Space Command
ON DRAWING HIS OWN CONCLUSIONS
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regions can dramatically alter the precipitation mix by increasing the share falling as rain while decreasing the share falling as snow. The result
is more flooding during the rainy season, a shrinking snow/ice mass, and less snowmelt to feed rivers during the dry season [4]. Forty percent of the world’s population derives at least half of its drinking water from the summer melt of mountain glaciers, but these glaciers are shrinking and some could disappear within decades. Several of Asia’s major rivers—the Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow—originate in the Himalayas [4]. If the massive snow/ice sheet in the Himalayas—the third-largest ice sheet in the world, after those in Antarctic and Greenland—continues to melt, it will dramatically reduce the water supply of much of Asia.
Most countries in the Middle East and northern Africa are already considered water scarce, and the International Water Resource Management Institute projects that by 2025, Pakistan, South Africa, and large parts of India and China will also be water scarce [5]. To put this in perspective: the U.S. would have to suffer a decrease in water supply that produces an 80 percent decrease in per capita water consumption to reach the United Nations definition of “water scarce.” These projections do not factor in climate change, which is expected to exacerbate water problems in many areas.
IMPAIRED FOOD PRODUCTION
Access to vital resources, primarily food and
water, can be an additional causative factor of conflicts, a number of which are playing out today in Africa. Probably the best known is the conflict in Darfur between herders and farmers. Long periods of drought resulted in the loss of both farmland and grazing land to the desert. The failure of their grazing lands compelled the nomads to migrate southward in search of water
and herding ground, and that in turn led to conflict with the farming tribes occupying those lands. Coupled with population growth, tribal, ethnic, and religious differences, the competition
for land turned violent. Probably more than any other recent conflict, Darfur provides a case study of how existing marginal situations
can be exacerbated beyond the tipping point by climate-related factors. It also shows how lack of essential resources threatens not only individuals and their communities but also the region and the international community
at large.
Worldwide food production will be affected by climate change in a variety of ways. Crop ecologists estimate that for every 1.8°F rise
in temperature above historical norms, grain
production will drop 10 percent [6].
Most of the world’s growth in food demand
is occurring on the Indian subcontinent and in
sub-Saharan Africa, areas already facing food shortages [6]. Over the coming decades, these areas are expected to become hotter and drier [7].
HEALTH CATASTROPHES
Climate change is likely to have major implications for human health. While some impacts, such
as reduced deaths from cold temperatures in some areas, will be positive, the World Health
Organization estimates that the overall impact will be negative [8].
The major concern is significant spreading of the conditions for vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever and malaria, and food-borne diseases, such as salmonellosis [8]. The decline in available fresh water in some regions will also have an impact, as good health and adequate supplies of clean water are inextricably linked.
A health emergency involving large numbers of casualties and deaths from disease can quickly expand into a major regional or global security
In some areas of the Middle East, tensions over water already exist.
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challenge that may require military support, ranging from distribution of vaccines to
full-scale stability operations [9].
LAND LOSS AND FLOODING: DISPLACEMENT OF MAJOR POPULATIONS
About two-thirds of the world’s population lives near coastlines [10], where critically
important facilities and infrastructure, such as transportation routes, industrial facilities, port facilities, and energy production and distribution facilities are located. A rise in sea level means potential loss of land and displacement of large numbers of people. Even in our own nation, Hurricane Katrina showed the social upheaval and tensions that can result from land loss and displaced populations. But while the impact of inundation from one-time occurrences such as Hurricane Katrina is temporary, even as it is devastating, inundation from climate change is likely to be permanent on the scale of human lifetimes. Rising sea levels will also make coastal areas more vulnerable to flooding and land loss through erosion.
Storm surges will also take a greater toll on coastal communities and infrastructure as sea levels rise. According to a Pacific Institute study, a six-inch rise in the water level of San Francisco Bay would mean a fairly routine one-in-ten-year storm would wreak as much damage as a far more serious “hundred-year storm” would have caused before the sea level rise [11]. In the U.S., we may be able to cope with such a change, but poorer nations would be greatly challenged.
Most of the economically important major rivers and river deltas in the world—the Niger, the Mekong, the Yangtze, the Ganges, the Nile, the Rhine, and the Mississippi—are densely populated along their banks. As sea levels rise and storm surges increase, saline water can
contaminate groundwater, inundate river deltas and valleys, and destroy croplands.
SECURITY CONSEQUENCES OF THESE DESTABILIZING EFFECTS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FAILED STATES AND THE GROWTH OF TERRORISM
Many developing countries do not have the government and social infrastructures in place to cope with the types of stressors that could be brought on by global climate change.
When a government can no longer deliver services to its people, ensure domestic order, and protect the nation’s borders from invasion, conditions are ripe for turmoil, extremism and
terrorism to fill the vacuum. Lebanon’s
experience with the terrorist group Hezbollah
and the Brazilian government’s attempts to reign in the slum gang First Capital
Command [12] are both examples of how the central governments’ inability to provide basic services has led to strengthening of these
extra-governmental entities.
MASS MIGRATIONS ADD TO GLOBAL TENSIONS
The reasons for mass migrations are very
complex. However, when water or food supplies shift or when conditions otherwise deteriorate (as from sea level rise, for example), people will likely move to find more favorable conditions [13]. Although climate change may force
migrations of workers due to economic
conditions, the greatest concern will be
movement of asylum seekers and refugees who due to ecological devastation become settlers:
• By 2025, 40 percent of the world’s population will be living in countries experiencing
significant water shortages [14].
• Over the course of this century, sea level rise could potentially cause the displacement of tens of millions of people from low-lying areas such as Bangladesh [15].
Migrations in themselves do not necessarily have negative effects, although taken in the context of global climate change a net benefit is highly unlikely. Three types of migration patterns occur.
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VOICES OF EXPERIENCE
“In the military, we’ve often run into problems associated with what we call ‘stovepipes,’ where each branch of the service has its own way of doing things. And we’ve learned that stovepipes
don’t work well. We have to take the same
approach with our government, to ensure that the many agencies are working together. In those cases where we do get involved, the task should not automatically be the responsibility of the U.S. military.”
He also described other layers of complexity.
Even in those cases where the U.S. may choose to embrace such a role, the best solutions may
require a nongovernmental component. “If you don’t include economists or far-thinking, out-of-the-box business people in this, you’ll get shortchanged.” He also said the U.S. “can’t imply that we’ll do this all alone. We need to make sure we don’t give that
impression. The same forces of economics, business,
politics, diplomacy, and military and security
interests can function to build coalitions in order to maintain stability when challenged by dramatic climate change.”
Some Americans believe we don’t need to
worry about climate change for decades. They say the issue isn’t as urgent as the war on terror. Adm. Lopez, the retired top NATO commander in Bosnia, has a different take. He sees a strong connection between the two.
“Climate change will provide the conditions that will extend the war on terror,” Adm. Lopez said.
“You have very real changes in natural systems
that are most likely to happen in regions
of the world that are already fertile ground
for extremism,” Adm. Lopez said. “Droughts, violent
weather, ruined agricultural lands—those are the kinds of stresses we’ll see more of under climate
change.”
Those changes in nature will lead to changes in society. “More poverty, more forced migrations, higher unemployment. Those conditions are ripe for extremists and terrorists.”
In the controversial war on terrorism, Adm. Lopez noted, there is general agreement on at least one thing: It’s best to stop terrorism
before it develops. “In the long term, we want to
address the underlying conditions that terrorists seek to exploit. That’s what we’d like to do, and it’s a consensus issue—we all want to do that. But climate change prolongs those conditions. It makes them worse.”
“Dealing with instability and how you mitigate that leads to questions about the role U.S. security forces can play,” Adm. Lopez added. “What can we do to alleviate the problems of instability in
advance? And keep in mind this will all be under a challenged resource situation. This is very complicated.
Of course, the military can be a catalyst for
making this happen, but it can’t do it all. This is also about economics, politics, and diplomacy.
ADMIRAL T. JOSEPH LOPEZ, USN (Ret.)
Former Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Naval Forces Europe and of Allied Forces, Southern Europe
ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CONDITIONS FOR TERRORISM
“ Climate change will provide the conditions that will extend the war on terror.”
SecurityAndClimate.cna.org
Some migrations take place within countries, adding to a nation’s political stress, causing
economic upheaval—positive and negative—and distracting from other issues. As a developed nation, the U.S. was able to absorb the displacement
of people from the Gulf Coast in the wake of Hurricane Katrina without suffering economic or political collapse, but not without considerable turmoil.
Some migrations cross international borders. Environmental degradation can fuel migrations in less developed countries, and these migrations can lead to international political conflict. For example, the large migration from Bangladesh to India in the second half of the last century was due largely to loss of arable land, among other environmental factors. This affected the economy and political situation in the regions of India that absorbed most of this population shift and resulted in violence between natives and migrants [16].
A third form of migration involves not only crossing international borders but moving across vast regions while doing so. Since the 1960s, Europe has experienced this kind of “south to north” migration, with an influx of immigrants from Africa and Asia. The shift in demographics
has created racial and religious tensions in many European countries, as evidenced in the 2005 civil unrest in France.
POTENTIAL ESCALATION OF CONFLICTS
OVER RESOURCES
To live in stability, human societies need access to certain fundamental resources, the most
important of which are water and food. The lack, or mismanagement, of these resources can undercut
the stability of local populations; it can affect regions on a national or international scale.
Disputes over key resources such as water do not automatically trigger violent outcomes, and no recent wars have been waged solely over water resources. In areas with a strong government and societal cohesiveness, even tense disputes and resource crises can be peacefully overcome. In fact, in recent years, arguments have been made that multinational cooperation over precious water resources has been more an instrument of regional peace than of war [17].
Nevertheless, resource scarcity always has the potential to be a contributing factor to conflict and instability in areas with weak and weakly supported governments [19]. In addition, there is always the potential for regional fighting to spread to a national or international scale. Some recent examples include: the 1994 genocide in Rwanda that was furthered by violence over agricultural resources; the situation in Darfur, Sudan, which had land resources at its root and which is increasingly spilling over into neighboring Chad; the 1970s downfall of Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie through his government’s inability to respond to food shortages; and the 1974
Nigerian coup that resulted largely from an
insufficient response to famine [19].
Whether resource scarcity proves to be the impetus for peaceful cooperation or an instigator
of conflict in the future remains to be seen. Regions that are already water scarce (such as Kuwait, Jordan, Israel, Rwanda, Somalia, Algeria, and Kenya) may be forced to confront this choice as climate change exacerbates their water scarcity.
The greatest concern will be movement of asylum seekers and refugees who due to ecological devastation become settlers...
18
REGIONAL IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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Africa’s importance to U.S. national security can no longer be ignored. Indeed, with the recent establishment of a U.S. African Command, the U.S. has underscored Africa’s strategic importance.
Its weak governments and the rising
presence of terrorist groups make Africa
important to the fight against terrorism.
Moreover, Africa is also of strategic value to the U.S. as a supplier of energy; by 2015, it will supply 25 to 40 percent of our oil, and it will also be a supplier of strategic minerals such as chrome, platinum, and manganese.
Reductions in soil moisture and further loss of arable land may be the most significant of
the projected impacts of climate change in
Africa. At the same time, extreme weather events are likely to increase. These expected changes portend reduced supplies of potable water and food production in key areas. Such changes will add significantly to existing tensions
and can facilitate weakened governance, economic collapses, massive human migrations, and potential conflicts. In Somalia, for example, alternating droughts and floods led to migrations
of varying size and speed and prolonged the instability on which warlords capitalized.
AFRICA
Increased political instability in Africa
potentially adds additional security requirements for the U.S. in a number of ways. Stability operations, ranging from humanitarian direct delivery of goods and the protection of relief workers, to the establishment of a stable and reconstructed state, can place heavy demands on the U.S. military. While the nature of future stability operations is a matter of speculation, historically some stability operations have
involved significant military operations and
casualties. Political instability also makes access to African trade and resources, on which the U.S. is reliant for both military and civilian uses, a riskier proposition.
UNSTABLE GOVERNMENTS AND TERRORIST HAVENS
Africa is increasingly crucial in the ongoing battle against civil strife, genocide, and terrorism.
Numerous African countries and regions already suffer from varying degrees of famine and civil strife. Darfur, Ethiopia, Eritrea,
Somalia, Angola, Nigeria, Cameroon, Western Sahara—all have been hit hard by tensions that can be traced in part to environmental causes. Struggles that appear to be tribal, sectarian, or nationalist in nature are often triggered by reduced water supplies or reductions in agricultural
productivity.
The challenges Africa will face as a result of climate change may be massive, and could present serious threats to even the most stable of governments. Many African nations can
REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Such changes will add significantly to existing tensions and can facilitate weakened governance, economic collapses, massive human migrations, and potential conflicts.
VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
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“That’s the situation today. Even in a time of relative stability, there is very little civil governance,
and very little ability to serve huge numbers of people with basics like electricity, clean water, health care, or education.
“If you add rising coastal waters and more
extreme weather events, you then have millions
of people who could be displaced. There really is no controlled place for them to go, no capacity
for an organized departure, and no capacity to make new living situations. When you add in the effects of climate change, it adds to the existing confusion and desperation, and puts more pressure on the Nigerian government. It makes the possibility of conflict very real. If the delta is flooded, or if major storms damage their drilling capacity, you lose the primary source
of income.
“Culturally, you have a country that is split geographically between Muslims and Christians. If migrations occur, you put real pressure on that country. It’s already tense and fragile. When you exacerbate that situation with climate change
effects, it’s not hard to postulate on the dangers.”
When asked why Americans should be interested in African security issues, retired Air Force Gen. Chuck Wald gave a number of reasons.
“We ought to care about Africa because we’re a good country,” Gen. Wald said. “We have a humanitarian character; it’s one of our great strengths, and we shouldn’t deny it. Some may be tempted to avert their eyes, but I would hope we instead see the very real human suffering
taking place there. We should be moved by it, challenged by it. Even in the context of security discussions, I think these reasons
matter, because part of our security depends on remaining true to our values.
“There are exotic minerals found only in
Africa that have essential military and civilian uses,” Gen. Wald continued. “We import more oil from Africa than the Middle East—probably
a shock to a lot of people—and that share will grow. Africa could become a major exporter
of food.
“My view is that we’ll be drawn into the politics
of Africa, to a much greater extent than in the past. A lot of Americans today would say Africa is an optional engagement. I don’t think that’s the case, even today, but it certainly won’t be in the future.”
To show how climate change can worsen conditions that are already quite desperate, Gen. Wald described a trip to Nigeria.
“We landed in Lagos late in the afternoon,” Gen. Wald said. “This is a city, now, with roughly 17 million people. The best way to describe our drive from the airport to the hotel is that it reminded me of a ‘Mad Max’ movie. There were massive numbers of people on the roads, just milling around. There were huge piles of trash. There were fires along the roadside and in the distance—huge fires. It was just short
of anarchy.
GENERAL CHARLES F. “CHUCK” WALD, USAF (Ret.)
Former Deputy Commander, Headquarters U.S. European Command (USEUCOM)
ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA
“ My view is that we’ll be drawn into the politics of Africa, to a much greater extent than we have in the past.”
best be described as failed states, and many African regions are largely ungoverned by civil institutions. When the conditions for failed states increase—as they most likely will over the coming decades—the chaos that results can be an incubator of civil strife, genocide, and the growth of terrorism.
LESS EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE AND POTENTIAL MIGRATIONS
More than 30 percent of the world’s refugees and displaced persons are African. Within the last decade, severe food shortages affected twenty-five African countries and placed as many as 200
million people “on the verge of calamity” [20].
Expected future climate change will
exacerbate this problem. The Sahara desert is spreading [21], and the sub-Saharan region is expected to suffer reduced precipitation [22]. As climate changes and agricultural patterns are disrupted, the geopolitics of the future will increasingly be the politics of scarcity. Potential rainfall decreases in North Africa would likely exacerbate the problem of migration to Europe. Reduced rainfall and increasing desertification of the sub-Saharan region will likely also result in migrations to Europe, as well as migrations within the African continent.
LAND LOSS AND WEATHER
DISASTERS
Sea level rise could also result in the displacement
of large numbers of people on the
African continent, as more than 25 percent
of the African population lives within 100
kilometers (sixty-two miles) of the coast, and six of Africa’s ten largest cities are on the coast. Nigeria and Mozambique are particularly vulnerable
to the effects of sea level rise and storm surges. Two cyclones in 2000 displaced 500,000 people in Mozambique and caused 950,000 people to require some form of humanitarian assistance [23]. The Niger Delta accounts for about 7.5 percent of Nigeria’s land area and a population of 20 million people.
In light of the potential magnitude of the human crisis that could result from major weather-related natural disasters and the
magnitude of the response and recovery efforts that would be required, stability operations
carried out by international militaries will likely occur more frequently.
HEALTH CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO ESCALATE
Severe and widespread continental health issues complicate an already extremely volatile environment.
Climate change will have both direct and indirect impacts on many diseases endemic to Africa such as malaria and dengue fever [24]. Increases in temperature can expand the latitude and altitude ranges for malaria, and flooding from sea level rise or severe weather events can increase the population of malaria vectors. For example, a temperature rise of 2°F can bring a malaria epidemic to Kenya. Excessive flooding is also conducive to the spread of cholera.
...the chaos that results can be an incubator of civil strife, genocide,
and the growth of terrorism.
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“Look at the Navy ocean modelers and
remote sensing experts. They worked with
scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab to
unlock the secrets of El Niño, using space-borne altimetry data and new numerical ocean
circulation models. The mission was a military one, but it ultimately played a role in helping us understand more about the climate.”
Throughout the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union each collected data in the Arctic.
Ice thickness and sub-ice ocean conditions
affecting acoustics were critical security issues. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, many saw that that data could be used to determine
temperature and ice condition changes over time. The two sides collaborated on ways
to share and reconcile the data, and in 1996
released the Arctic Ocean Atlas to the world’s scientific community. The data have
advanced understanding of climate change in
significant ways.
“I think there’s another component to this,” said Adm. Gaffney. “Defense employees
[military and civilian] actually have a responsibility
to the nation when they have a certain
skill. They have a responsibility to share that with the public and the nation, as long as
security is not compromised. They’ve done this in the past. And I’d love to see them able to do this more often in the future.”
The Department of Defense and the intelligence community have in the past used their immense capability for data collection and analysis to
address national and international environmental questions. Retired Vice Adm. Paul G. Gaffney II says we have the capacity to do this again, this time for better understanding and monitoring of climate change.
The DoD offers equipment, talent and, as Adm. Gaffney put it, “Data, data, data.”
“You will find the defense and intelligence communities have extraordinary amounts of data, and, if done in a careful and deliberate manner, data collected in the past and into the future can be made available to climate scientists,”
Adm. Gaffney said. “Be it imagery, other satellite records, data from Navy oceanographic ships and vehicles, surface warships and submarines,
or observations collected by aircraft—you can find ways to smooth it to protect what must be protected if the raw data cannot be released.
If climate change is, in fact, a critical issue for
security, then the military and intelligence communities
should be specifically tasked to aggressively
find ways to make their data, talent, and systems capabilities available to American efforts in understanding climate change signals.
“Most of our ships are already outfitted to
collect basic atmospheric and oceanic information. U.S. military platforms are all over the world, all
of the time; they become platforms of opportunity to collect data for this global issue.”
Adm. Gaffney also cited staff capabilities.
“The quality of personnel from the defense and intelligence organizations is exceptional,” he said. “Within the DoD, we have labs that are as good as any that exist anywhere in the world, using whatever metrics you want—papers published,
patents, Nobel laureates.
VICE ADMIRAL PAUL G. GAFFNEY II, USN (Ret.)
Former President, National Defense University; Former Chief of Naval Research and Commander,
Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command
ON MILITARY RESEARCH AND CLIMATE SCIENCE
“ The mission was a military one, but it ultimately played a role in helping us understand more about the climate.”
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24
Most climate projections indicate increasing monsoon variability, resulting in increases in both flood and drought intensity in temperate
and tropical Asia [24]. Almost 40 percent of Asia’s population of nearly 4 billion lives within forty-five miles of its nearly 130,000-mile-long coastline. Sea level rise, water availability
affecting agricultural productivity, and increased effects of infectious disease are the primary climate
effects expected to cause problems in Asia.
SEA LEVEL RISE MAY
THREATEN MILLIONS
Some of the most vulnerable regions in the world to sea level rise are in southern Asia, along the coasts of Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Burma; and Southeast Asia, along the coasts between Thailand and Vietnam,
including Indonesia and the Philippines.
Sandy coastlines backed by densely populated,
low-lying plains make the Southeast Asian region particularly vulnerable to inundation.
Coastal Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia could all be threatened with flooding and the loss of important coastal farmlands.
The location and topography of Bangladesh make it one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to a rise in sea level. Situated at the northeastern region of South Asia on the Bay of Bengal, it is about the size of Iowa with a population of almost 150 million. It is very flat and low lying, except in the northeast and southeast regions, and has a coastline exceeding
300 miles. About 10 percent of Bangladesh is within three feet of mean sea level. Over the next century, population rise, land scarcity and frequent flooding coupled with increased storm surge and sea level rise could cause millions of people to cross the border into India. Migration across the border with India is already such a concern that India is building a fence to keep Bangladeshis out.
India and Pakistan have long, densely populated
and low-lying coastlines that are very vulnerable
to sea level rise and storm surge. Coastal agriculture, infrastructure, and onshore oil exploration are at risk. Possible increases in the frequency and intensity of storm surges could be disproportionately large in heavily developed coastal areas and also in low-income rural areas, particularly such low-lying cities such as Mumbai,
Dhaka and Karachi.
WATER STRESS AFFECTS ASIA’S ABILITY TO FEED ITS PEOPLE
By 2050, regions dependent on glacial melting for water may face serious consequences. Asia, where hundreds of millions of people rely on waters from vanishing glaciers on the Tibetan plateau, could be among the hardest hit regions.
Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water resource stresses in most regions of Asia [7]. Most countries in Asia will experience
CLIMATE CHANGE CAN AFFECT IMPORTANT
U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS
Asia, where hundreds of millions of people rely on waters from vanishing glaciers on the Tibetan plateau, could be among the hardest hit regions.
ASIA
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often directed internally. They focus on keeping internal order. There might be cases where the U.S. military might be in a position to help deal with the effects of climate change—with floods or the migrations that might result from them. The
immediate goal would be to relieve suffering, not to
preserve governments. But if you’re partnering with a nation’s army keeping domestic order, that can be a real challenge.”
When asked about China, Adm. Prueher noted that the European Union is working to identify ways of cooperating with the Chinese on the development of clean coal technologies. And he cautioned against those in the U.S. who oppose any kind of technology exchange with China.
“Yes, China is focused heavily on growth. Yes, there is what I think is a quite remote possibility
of future military conflict. And, yes, it is a real challenge
to negotiate with them; one can count on them to negotiate toward what they perceive to be their own national interest,” he said. “Reasonable enough. But on the issue of carbon emissions, it doesn’t help us to solve our problem if China doesn’t solve theirs. And that means we need to engage them on many fronts. Issues of great importance to our world will not get solved without U.S.-Chinese
cooperation. I happen to like dealing with the
Chinese. You may not, or you may be suspicious of them, but we need to cooperate.
“They have 1.3 billion people, 200 million of whom are under-employed or unemployed,” Adm. Prueher said. “They have a great deal of pride and see themselves as a great nation. Most of what we say to enhance environmental progress in China is seen by them as a way to stop them from continuing
economic growth.
“Not talking to the Chinese is not an option.”
In a discussion of climate change issues in the Pacific region, retired Adm. Joseph Prueher first considered the issue from a singular perspective:
the impact climate change may have on the
region’s governments and their relative stability.
Using Singapore as an example, he said, “It’s a democracy, but with a very strong leadership. They’ve prospered, but owing to lack of space they have many restrictions we do not have. If one looks ahead to the effects of climate change, you start with the understanding that Singapore, low lying and very hot, will face more storms and more moisture. It will face coastal impacts. Those kinds of changes, in a crowded nation, create a whole set of issues that affect not just the economy and culture, but the security dynamic as well.”
Adm. Prueher then shifted the conversation to the region’s governments in general.
“It may well be that in very crowded nations, a stronger government is necessary in order to avoid instability,” he said. “In Asia, one sees a whole line of countries with governments exercising very firm control. But when you look to the future to consider
the kinds of impacts we may see—flooding, extreme weather events, real disruptions—you also have to consider some steps that we in the U.S. would think offensive. Those are steps these governments may feel they need to take in order to avoid chaos.”
Referencing low-lying regions where arable land will be lost, he said, “You see mass destruction
in countries where the government is not robust. When people can’t cope, governing structures
break down.”
Adm. Prueher noted that how a government
responds presents a new set of issues for American
political and military leaders.
“Most of our security forces are for protecting
our nation from outside, but that’s not necessarily
the case in the rest of the world,” Adm. Prueher said. “Military personnel elsewhere are
ADMIRAL JOSEPH W. PRUEHER, USN (Ret.)
Former Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) and Former U.S. Ambassador to China
ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PACIFIC
VOICES OF EXPERIENCE
“The military should be interested in fuel economy on the battlefield,” he said. “It’s a readiness issue. If you can move your men and
materiel more quickly, if you have less tonnage but the same level of protection and firepower, you’re more efficient on the battlefield.