Dear God....Originally Posted by ByGraceAlone
Senator
Dear God....
~Pyrate~
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
John F. Kennedy
Senator
Yep. But you KNOW our PC culture is so incredibly stupid-that they will allow WORDS (accurate though they may be) to destroy their cities, their friends, their children-their own lives. ALL will be punished. The ultimate stupid tax.
~Pyrate~
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
John F. Kennedy
Judge
Wow, the turbo really kicked in on the 8th...
"See, in the last few years...we've stumbled... And when you stumble a lot, you...you start looking at your feet. We have to make people...lift their eyes back to the horizon and see the line of ancestors behind us saying, 'Make my life have meaning.' And to our inheritors before us saying, 'Create the world we will live in.' I mean, we're not just holding jobs and having dinner. We are in the process of building the future."
Outbound
The Frigid Times
http://www.frigidtimes.blogspot.com/
Senator
Did anyone ever figure the transmission rate of this outbreak? I believe it is called the r factor or something like that.
Hwæt! Wé Gárdena in géardagum þéodcyninga þrym gefrúnon· hú ðá æþelingas ellen fremedon. - Listen! We of the Spear-Danes in the days of yore, of those clan-kings heard of their glory. How the worthy princes performed courageous deeds.
I would explain things to you but....I'm all out of crayons and puppets.
Congressman
Over at TB2K, Kris Gandillion calculated that at the end of August the R0 was 2.785.
ETA: The 1918 flu pandemic had an R0 of 2-3, for reference.
Measles and pertussis are all R0 >12
It is sobering to reflect that one of the best ways to get yourself a reputation as a dangerous citizen these days is to go about repeating the very phrases which our founding fathers used in the struggle for independence. - Charles A. Beard
In this day and age, the only path of honor for a patriot IS to become a traitor. - Miradus[/SIZE]
Congressman
They seem to be rising threefold every month (2*3 = 6, 6*3 = 18, 18*3 = 54 which is close to 59, though scarily lower, which seems to indicated a faster spread).
Again, I'll reiterate my question (mostly hypothetical) - When will the # of new cases overload the capability of the current system. Too little too late is disasterous in this event.
But I digress. Extrapolate out the data (assuming Sept doesn't increase even more):
Oct: 177
Nov: 531
Dec: 1593
It is sobering to reflect that one of the best ways to get yourself a reputation as a dangerous citizen these days is to go about repeating the very phrases which our founding fathers used in the struggle for independence. - Charles A. Beard
In this day and age, the only path of honor for a patriot IS to become a traitor. - Miradus[/SIZE]
Congressman
There is really no system. It was overwhelmed from the beginning. Much like a fire, you can't do much more than contain it and let it burn itself out. There is little to no containment right now, other than that imposed by lack of mobility due to crushing poverty.
Judge
It already has. They were turning 30+ cases of presumed Ebola (at least, desperately ill people in dire need of intensive medical attention) away from the clinics every DAY a couple of weeks ago. There is no reason to believe those numbers have improved... and plenty (see post #870 above) that they've likely increased since.Again, I'll reiterate my question (mostly hypothetical) - When will the # of new cases overload the capability of the current system. Too little too late is disasterous in this event.
Think about that- they are telling people "sorry, we have no beds. Even though it's very likely to have a fatal, contagious disease, please leave and go home. Or somewhere"... and these poor people are stumbling away to spread the virus elsewhere. Many are dying in the streets, lacking the strength to get back home (because most never even attempt to see a doctor or go to the hospital or clinic until they are VERY ill). And the corpse of an Ebola victim has been described, probably accurately, as a "virus bomb".
Now realize that the UK has TWO beds suitable for a level 4 disease. The US has TWENTY TWO beds. Sure, they're "training" (well, talking about training) health care workers on how to treat Ebola patients, using the utterly inadequate CDC guidelines of "mask and gloves" for PPE, and we're hearing a lot of "don't worry, be happy, we don't REALLY need a Level 4 facility"... even though hundreds of doctors and nurses have died in Africa due to a lack of adequate PPE
I know it's popular to think that the US, with it's "riches" and "excellent sanititation" (anyone who writes that has never seen the NY city subway system, or the Atlanta public buildings) will easily keep this from spreading here. I'm too much of a realist to think that's likely.
Summerthyme
Esquire
I think once we have a case "in the wild" in this hemisphere, the game is going to change dramatically.
For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms. Ephesians 6:12
- Pray
- Prep
- Patience
Tree of Liberty Benefactor
I just read the Hot Zone by Richard Preston so this makes me an expert on all things Ebola. When they say it needs to burn itself out, there has to be a quarantine of some sort. In African villages where this disease had spread in the past, the sick were relegated to a hut far from the village. If they walked out healthy having beaten the disease, they were welcomed back into the village. The rest were left to die. After they died and the disease had burned itself out, the hut was burned to the ground. This needs to be done on a continental scale. Namely, Africa.
This is a semi suicide mission for any troop. I wonder if they can opt out?
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