Recession?

[Godwit]

Stats this morning look pretty good --

US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Jan P: 4.9% (est 2.9%; rev prev -4.6%) -
Ex-Transp. (MoM) Jan P: 1.8% (est 0.3%; rev prev -0.7%)

US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air (MoM) Jan P: 3.90% (est -0.50%; rev prev 0.90%)

US Initial Jobless Claims Feb-20: 272K (est 270K; prev 262K) -
Continuing Claims Feb-13: 2253K (est 2253K; rev prev 2272K)

US House Price Purchase Index (MoM) Dec: 0.40% (est 0.50%; rev prev 0.60%)
US House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) Q4: 1.40% (prev 1.30%)

[Godwit]

But Kansas City Fed reports are negative --

Kansas City Fed Mfg Activity (Feb): -12 (est -6, prev -9)
Kansas City Fed Employment Index -20, vs -7


MORE --

KC Fed respondent: "Business is off at levels not seen since the recession of the early 1980's."
KC Fed respondent: "“We are starting off to a very slow year. Shipments are down 22% compared to last year"
KC Fed: “Anything energy related shows no signs of life and we have low expectations into the future."

[Pastor Guest]

But Kansas City Fed reports are negative --

Kansas City Fed Mfg Activity (Feb): -12 (est -6, prev -9)
Kansas City Fed Employment Index -20, vs -7


MORE --

KC Fed respondent: "Business is off at levels not seen since the recession of the early 1980's."
KC Fed respondent: "“We are starting off to a very slow year. Shipments are down 22% compared to last year"
KC Fed: “Anything energy related shows no signs of life and we have low expectations into the future."

Yet, with all the negative news this morning the markets don't seem to be fazed at all.

[Pastor Guest]

From Bloomberg:

Citi: Here Comes a Global Recession

After a few years of reasonably calm markets and stable growth around the world, Citigroup Inc. says the chances of a global recession are already high and only going up.

[lonewolfinoregon]

Funny how Gotwit blindly believes the government about Climate Change, yet cast doubt on the same government when posting articles from people who are contrarian to the government assurances that we are in a time of prosperity....

Yep when they finally can't HIDE THE TRUTH about the economy, don't worry Gotwit will be using the Gov't excuse 'WE DIDN'T SEE IT COMING!!!!!"

[Godwit]

GDP --
Q4 GDP grows 1% (+0.4% expected) http://read.bi/1Tbzt0t
GDP Price Index (QoQ) Q4 S: 0.90% (est 0.80%; prev 0.80%)


International Trade --
US Advance Goods Trade Balance (USD) Jan: -62.228B (est -61.200B; prev -61.513B)


Personal Income --
US Personal Consumption (QoQ) Q4 S: 2.00% (est 2.20%; prev 2.20%)
-Core PCE (QoQ) Q4 S: 1.30% (est 1.20%; prev 1.20%)

[Godwit]

Livesquawk ‏@livesquawk 7m7 minutes ago
US Univ. of Michigan Sentiment Feb F: 91.7 (est 91; prev 90.7)

Bespoke ‏@bespokeinvest 8m8 minutes ago
Michigan Confidence 91.7 vs. 91.0 estimate.

Bespoke ‏@bespokeinvest 9m9 minutes ago
Personal Income 0.5% vs. 0.4% estimate, Personal Spending 0.5% vs. 0.3% estimate.

[Godwit]

US Chicago PMI Feb: 47.6 (est 52.5; prev 55.6)

Large drop in Chicago PMI relative to expectations. Employment very disappointing. But so are new orders and production.


Business in Chicago collapses into contraction



http://www.businessinsider.com/chica...ry-2016-2016-2

[Godwit]

US Pending Home Sales (MoM) Jan: -2.50% (est 0.50%; rev prev 0.90%)
-Pending Home Sales NSA (YoY) Jan: -0.90% (est 4.10%; prev 3.10%)

[Godwit]

US Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (Feb): -31.8 (est -30.0, prev -34.6)

Dallas Fed Employment Index: -11.1, vs -4.2