Economics

[TonyM]

2016-12-14 Wednesday

IRAQ IS raising NOT cutting exports per DJ ... had pledged to CUT 210k B/D in opec Production per DJ

MBA Mortgage Applications
` Prior Actual
Composite Index - W/W Change -0.7 % -4.0 %
Purchase Index - W/W Change 0.4 % -3.0 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change -1.0 % -4.0 %

PPI-FD
US PPI (YoY) Nov: 1.3% (est. 0.90%, prev. 0.80%)
-PPI (MoM) Nov: 0.4% (est. 0.10%, prev. 0.00%)
US Core PPI (YoY) Nov: 1.6% (est. 1.30%, prev. 1.20%)
-Core PPI (MoM) Nov: 0.4% (est. 0.20%, prev. -0.20%)

Retail Sales
Retail sales miss across the board as PPI comes in stronger than forecast.
Retail Sales in U.S. Increased Less Than Forecast in November https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...st-in-november
US Retail Sales (MoM) Nov: 0.1% (est. 0.30%, rev prev. 0.6% from 0.80%)
US Retail Sales Ex Autos (MoM) Nov: 0.2% (est. 0.40%, rev prev. 0.6% from 0.80%)
US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) Nov: 0.2% (est. 0.40%, rev prev. 0.5% from 0.60%)
US Retail Control (MoM) Nov: 0.1% (est. 0.30%, rev prev. 0.6% from 0.80%)

Industrial Production
US Industrial Production (MoM)Nov: -0.4% (est. -0.20%, rev prev. 0.1% from 0.00%)
US Manufacturing Production (MoM) Nov: -0.1% (est. -0.20%, rev prev. 0.3% from 0.20%)
US Capacity Utilization Rate Nov: 75.0% (est. 75.10%, rev prev. 75.4% from 75.30%)

Business Inventories
US Business Inventories (MoM) Oct: -0.2% (est -0.1% rev prev 0.0%)

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET

FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET

Fed Chair Press Conference
https://www.federalreserve.gov/

[TonyM]

For release at 2:00 p.m. EST



Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and
that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since
mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the
unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising
moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation
has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's
2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in
energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures
of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low;
most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are
little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to
foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects
that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy,
economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market
conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to
rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past
declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market
strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear
roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation
indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and
inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the
federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy
remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in
labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the
target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess
realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of
maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take
into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor
market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation
expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the
Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its
inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will
evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the
federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some
time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.
However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the
economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting
principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of
rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates
doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is
well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of
longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain
accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen,
Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard;
Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell;
Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse.../20161214a.htm

[TonyM]

Pretty good econ news this morning, especially

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 21.5

Empire State Mfg Survey 9.0

http://www.econoday.com/economic-calendar.aspx

[Pastor Guest]

Pretty good econ news this morning, especially

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 21.5

Empire State Mfg Survey 9.0

http://www.econoday.com/economic-calendar.aspx

No surprise. All will continue to be rosy until January 20th.

[Groucho]

Tony was doing so well before he started writing. Prior to that, we merely thought him a fool.

[jimmyb]

Tony was doing so well before he started writing. Prior to that, we merely thought him a fool.

I truly think they will Rosify things until Trump takes over and then pull the plug.
I also think they don't understand who they are dealing with.

[TonyM]

The new Economic Report of the President is available

https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/cea

[fugeguy]

One quarter of less than god awful means little

[TonyM]

Why so many U.S. manufacturers are putting up ‘Help Wanted’ signs

Susan Murray Carlock says her Indiana company is providing something popular opinion has deemed nearly
extinct: well-paying manufacturing jobs. Over the past four years, Mursix Corp., a creator of seat belt buckles and
bed frames, has sought to fill a variety of production positions. The average wages exceed $20 an hour — a ladder to the middle class.

Trouble is, she can’t find workers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-complicated/?

[lonewolfinoregon]

Yep nitpicking you financial news!!!

I believe the PMoHD will continue spout GOOD NEWS until Jan 20 and soon after start posting all the BAD NEWS, when the MSM launches their FAKE NEWS and start the REAL WAR with Trump!!!!