Economics

[TonyM]

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Sees Q4 Growth At 2.9%

US NY Fed GDP Nowcast Q1: 2.00% (prev 1.70%)

New company start-ups surpass 20,000 in 2016
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/0106/843023-new-companies-surpass-20-000-in-2016/ …

Dow Jones IA touches and backs away from record 20,000

Jeffrey Lacker: Current employment growth is likely faster than needed to keep up with the growth of the working age population … this suggests employment growth will continue to slow. Lacker’s latest economic outlook speech is now online. http://ow.ly/Tzms307L2LA

Bloomberg TV reporting that Theranos is laying off 41% of their employees. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-06/theranos-to-lay-off-41-of-workforce-company-says …

[TonyM]

In the past temporary help employment growth rolling over was recessionary. Will this time be different?

[TonyM]

European Economic Sentiment Data at a Nine Year High:



http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/?p=12534

[TonyM]

[TonyM]

[TonyM]

The Coming Tech Backlash


50% of the jobs will be gone in ~20 years. Not from the great sucking sound
of jobs to Mexico that can be stopped with a wall. Not from moving
offshore to China. From automation that is moving quickly from blue
collar manufacturing to white collar information work. Second only to
climate change, this is the greatest disruption of our time, and I don’t
mean that word in a good way.

A recent study found 50% of occupations today will be gone by 2020, and a 2013 Oxford study forecasted that 47% of jobs will be automated by 2034. A Ball State study found that only 13% of manufacturing job losses were due to trade, the rest from automation. A McKinsey study suggests 45% of knowledge work activity can be automated.

https://shift.newco.co/the-coming-te...198#.x5hhjk8tx

[TonyM]

US Fed Labour Market Conditions Index Dec: -0.3 (prev 1.5)

[TonyM]

I saw some version of the chart below a few months ago and it stunned
me. I thought that the decline in manufacturing employment had been
relatively steady since the 1970s. As the chart shows, however, that is
not the case at all. In fact, manufacturing employment was relatively
flat all the way through the 1990s. Starting around 2000 manufacturing
jobs fell off a cliff. The sharp decline eased slightly for a few
years, then accelerated in the Great Recession, with a very, very modest
recovery over the last five years.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/...tun-you-or-not

[TonyM]

Job openings

JOLTS
.................... Prior ....Prior Revised ..........Actual
Job Openings 5.534 M ...5.451 M .............5.522 M



http://www.econoday.com/economic-calendar.aspx

[Schaide]

HMMMMMM....... I don't think this may be another reason why Trump will probably lose.

“This is still another reason why Trump will probably lose. The
economy is in decent shape — so decent that the Fed will have to raise
interest rates later this year,” said Greg Valliere, chief global
strategist at Horizon Investments. “This report shows a solid economy
with — ironically — decent export growth. Hillary Clinton simply has to
avoid gloating. But this is a big plus for her, and she may get another
pleasant surprise when the October jobs report is released next Friday.”

The initial reading from the government on third quarter growth,
which is subject to multiple revisions in the months ahead, comes after
Trump spent portions of the campaign ripping the U.S. economy as a
complete disaster. “Right now our country is dying at 1 percent GDP,”
the GOP nominee said during the third debate.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/1...-trump-230441?