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Thread: All Things Crypto

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingsX View Post
    .


    Bitcoin reminds me of Dutch tulip mania... except bitcoin is intrinsically worthless. At least a flower bulb has some worth.


    I'm sure everyone has heard of tulip mania... below is a quote from a BBC article regarding it.


    "The tale of the Dutch tulip craze is a cautionary one – the first example of an economic bubble"

    " The expanding interest in tulips coincided with an especially prosperous period in the history of the United Provinces, which, by the 17th Century, dominated world trade and had become the richest country in Europe. As a result, not only aristocratic citizens but also wealthy merchants and even middle-class artisans and tradesmen suddenly found that they had spare cash to spend on luxuries such as expensive flowers.

    Already by 1623, the sum of 12,000 guilders – considerably more than the value of a smart townhouse in Amsterdam – was offered to tempt one tulip connoisseur into parting with only 10 bulbs of the beautiful, and extremely rare, Semper Augustus – the most coveted tulip variety. It was not enough to secure a deal.

    When word got out, during the 1630s, that tulip bulbs were being sold for ever-increasing prices, more and more speculators piled in to the market. The intricacies of this market, as well as its frailties, are brilliantly outlined by the historian Mike Dash in Tulipomania: The Story of the World’s Most Coveted Flower and the Extraordinary Passions It Aroused (1999).

    One of the curiosities of the 17th Century tulip market was that people did not trade the flowers themselves but rather the bulbs of scarce and sought-after varieties. The result, as Dash points out, was “what would today be called a futures market”. Tulips even began to be used as a form of money in their own right: in 1633, actual properties were sold for handfuls of bulbs.

    As people heard stories of acquaintances making unheard-of profits simply by buying and selling tulip bulbs, they decided to get in on the act – and prices skyrocketed. In 1633, a single bulb of Semper Augustus was already worth an astonishing 5,500 guilders. By the first month of 1637, this had almost doubled, to 10,000 guilders. Dash puts this sum in context: “It was enough to feed, clothe and house a whole Dutch family for half a lifetime, or sufficient to purchase one of the grandest homes on the most fashionable canal in Amsterdam for cash, complete with a coach house and an 80-ft (25-m) garden – and this at a time when homes in that city were as expensive as property anywhere in the world.”

    Things came to a head during the winter of 1636-37, when tulip mania reached its peak. By then, thousands of people within the United Provinces, including cobblers, carpenters, bricklayers and woodcutters, were indulging in frenzied trading, which often took place in smoky tavern backrooms. (Drink was a significant factor in the generally intoxicated mood.) Some bulbs even changed hands up to 10 times during the course of a single day.

    And then, overnight, the tavern trade disappeared. In early February 1637, the market for tulips collapsed. This was because most speculators could no longer afford to purchase even the cheapest bulbs. Demand disappeared, and flowers tumbled to a tenth of their former values. The result was the prospect of financial catastrophe for many. Disputes over debts rumbled on for years. "

    http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/201...re-than-houses
    Lots of people seem to pull this out and perhaps it is a good comparison - perhaps not. Not sure how Tulip bulbs could have replaced the Libor trade and saved trillions per year in fees but lets say hypothetically that they have the same level of non currency value (which is almost zero). You have the wrong reason that the market ended. None of this is secret stuff so do your own research.

    It was not because people lost interest or could not afford a bulb anymore. The real reason is the same one that everyone is thinking without needing much background on it. Everyone here is thinking - if tulip bulbs were could get you a house or 12 acres of land you would creating new tulips to sell them. Think of all the new wealth you could attain just by waiting for hundreds to thousands of new bulbs to germinate from seeds and form new bulbs. Right? Tulip bulbs are cultivated either from buds on the existing bulb or from seeds. The problem is that Tulip bulbs take 7-12 years for the bulb to form from seed so you, being the smart patient entrepreneur, carefully cultivate some from buds and some from seeds. Now take a look at the dates above.

    In the early years of 1619-1625 the supply was very constrained and created the bubble. Over time the mania grew as more and more speculators poured into the market and though additional tulips were available the price continued to rise. The new interest in the market somewhat balanced the limited supply which could be added to the existing bulbs in the short term. By the end in 1637 the supply had finally caught up. All of the patient farmers that were looking to cash in on their crop after as much as a dozen years of cultivation were all selling into buyers market. The result was oversupply which not only took out the high prices but now suppressed the price far below the original pre mania valuations.

    The lesson from 17th century tulip mania is one of supply and demand and especially a study on scarcity. A system is unsustainable if everyone is able to increase the money supply at will. Eventually it results in inflation (of other assets as compared to the currency in question) and ultimately a sudden flight to safety. At first the scarcity was enforced by nature in that nobody could create new bulbs overnight while demand increased. In the end the speculators were hurt the most especially the ones that did not see the bulbs flooding the market. Like any bubble - the smart ones made money on the rise but were smart enough to see the end coming.

    This is not an argument for cryptocurrencies - just a clarification. I would leave some links but think that you can do your own research on this one as it is pretty basic stuff.

  2. #12
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    Read and Learn:

    "Chinese Physical Gold Investment Demand Surges While Americans Pile Into Stock & Crypto Bubbles"

    https://srsroccoreport.com/chinese-p...rypto-bubbles/

    Actually, I don't know why I bother to log on, do the cutting and pasting only to have the next bonehead laud the crypto market. But, I do. And I did. But it will probably be the last time I bother.

    And BTW--don't forget to jump on the thread where our generous host, House Wolf, is requesting financial assistance with the monthly bills he has to cover. We owe this forum our support, time to time.

    Blessings All,
    Farp

  3. #13
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    Why Not to Invest in the Crypto market.
    There are things that present a real danger to the cryptocurrency/Blockchain craze going on and reasons why I would suggest that people DO NOT put their hard-earned money into this speculative phase of a new technology unless they really know what they are doing. It is kind of like the internet circa 1997 where people were throwing dollars at any internet related idea and while a few hit-it-big most lost their money as the hype phase moved to disillusionment but later matured into what we have today.


    So far a lot of people have thrown out drive-by reasons to not pay attention like “Tulip Mania” or “Intrinsic Value” not knowing that Tulip Mania was destroyed by oversupply and Intrinsic Value of currency was a theory disproved in the late 1800s and replace with Subjective theory – why all currencies today are not tied to anything and never will be tied to gold and silver again (this does not mean it is not important to own precious metals). Many are assuming that all cryptocurrency tokens are just fake currency. Bitcoin is a pure currency but many others tokens actually solve very valuable problems that will not only decentralize monopolized industries but will lower costs in a way that makes the tokens needed to conduct business extremely valuable and in some cases interest bearing.


    So why should you stay away from them right now?


    Natural Cycle of Innovation. Sometimes this is described by the "Gartner Hype Cycle" chart and which divides up the phases roughly as: Technology Trigger (Need triggers the innovation), Peak of Inflated Expectations (Mania Phase), Trough of Disillusionment (failure of many/most early ideas), Slope of enlightenment (good ideas begin to become productive), Plateau of Productivity (technologies build upon each other, mature, and become ingrained our life). We are currently in the mania phase and as the internet was in the same phase in 1999 we will see a crash of all the technologies and ideas at some point. I could be wrong by my guess is that a crash is coming and it is normal and healthy – will set us up for the real innovation in the coming years by blockchain and associated tokens.



    Price Manipulation. A lot of people believe there is downright fraud going on with price manipulation on Bitcoin and most of the other crypto’s. I believe it. It is called “Painting the Tape” and is the oldest securities fraud where one person sells to another person on the exchange and that person sells it back to the first person for a dollar more. They keep going back and forth to run up price to unimaginable levels and easily profit by it. This must be going on – if not, some criminal is missing out on an unregulated opportunity.


    Government Intervention – China is on the offensive and is doing everything within their power to destroy the cryptocurrency industry. China hates everything about this liberitarian decentralized concept. S. Korea just cracked down on exchanges today. The reality is that if the US government tells us to turn in our Gold then most people with gold will turn it in without so much as a whimper as we have before. If they ask the IRS to enforce a ban on a competing currency to the dollar like Bitcoin and use their extensive database to enforce penalties then most people will exit the market. I do not think that this will happen but in the end they can make life difficult. I’m not on the side of the banksters but the reality is that they will probably get their way and the Governments of the world will do their bidding and destroy any threats to their system.


    Technology Usage is not there yet. With all of the potential of smart contracts and 3rd generation cryptocurrencies conducting decentralized business on everything including banking, contracts, real estate, payment systems, file storage, hosting, insurance, lending, AI, identity verification, governance, social media, security, value exchanges, - with all the hundreds of millions that are now pouring into this area nobody is really using it yet in a big way. It takes time for all of these ideas to be developed and industries to mature into useful. The fact is that people are not using the tools yet and are months to years away. Still – the stuff coming will blow your mind if you really understand it but for now you invest at your own risk.


    To summarize, If you are still thinking that bitcoin and cryptos are a scam you still don’t understand what is happening. These technologies are with us long term and I would be happy to continue the discussion to explain some of the toolsets which may change your life - as they are NOT going away. Happy to help with the understanding.



    Be careful guys. Some people have made fortunes but by the end I believe more often than not people will lose a large portion of their investment.



    Disclaimer. I own some precious metal (well what was not lost in a tragic canoe accident) but very little in the way of Cryptos. I do however know a lot about the industry and am cheering on the libertarian aspects of the movement.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farp View Post


    Read and Learn:

    "Chinese Physical Gold Investment Demand Surges While Americans Pile Into Stock & Crypto Bubbles"

    https://srsroccoreport.com/chinese-p...rypto-bubbles/


    Gold has greatly increased in price... fuel by both demand and drop in the US dollar.

  5. #15
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    You can access it. Just use your BitPay card. Blockchain is becoming huge...not just in currency but in everyday things like tracking medicines. My thought is that it might become huge. Not now...but in a few years.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaryC View Post
    No disrespect to graystone.

    You can only buy bread with it, if you have access to it. Note PR, no electricity, and the above noted where the site is down. Admittedly the same is true for fiat money, note the Savings and Loan crash. Might even be able to throw in PR as well, if the banks don't have any electricity........

    I don't know much about bitcoin and how it works, and have no money to invest, that I don't mind losing, so don't, or haven't looked into how to get some.

    I think one of the reasons the price is soaring, is due to people seeing what happen when someone got in on the ground floor with Intel, and Microsoft, and how that produced some wealthy people, and are trying to get in on the ground floor here. Meaning greed may be the biggest player here.

    But yeah in some form or fashion, it's going world wide, and it's going mandatory. Even as Direct Deposit has gone mandatory.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by cptmidnight View Post
    Lots of people seem to pull this out and perhaps it is a good comparison - perhaps not. Not sure how Tulip bulbs could have replaced the Libor trade and saved trillions per year in fees but lets say hypothetically that they have the same level of non currency value (which is almost zero). You have the wrong reason that the market ended. None of this is secret stuff so do your own research.
    Tulips: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/histo...ver-180964915/

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farp View Post
    Read and Learn:

    "Chinese Physical Gold Investment Demand Surges While Americans Pile Into Stock & Crypto Bubbles"

    https://srsroccoreport.com/chinese-p...rypto-bubbles/

    Actually, I don't know why I bother to log on, do the cutting and pasting only to have the next bonehead laud the crypto market. But, I do. And I did. But it will probably be the last time I bother.

    And BTW--don't forget to jump on the thread where our generous host, House Wolf, is requesting financial assistance with the monthly bills he has to cover. We owe this forum our support, time to time.

    Blessings All,
    Farp

    Amen to that my friend. I support the tree and so does my buddy AUnit who turned me on to it. Pay up you leeches. Quit riding for free. 5 bucks a month? It ain't going to kill you. Don't mean to be mean and House Wolf will more than likely not like this post but it is what it is.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farp View Post
    .... Actually, I don't know why I bother to log on, do the cutting and pasting only to have the next bonehead laud the crypto market. But, I do. And I did. But it will probably be the last time I bother.

    Blessings All,
    Farp
    Keep up the good work ....


    Quote Originally Posted by zzz281996 View Post
    Don't mean to be mean and House Wolf will more than likely not like this post but it is what it is.
    You was kinda rough on folk ....

    O.W.

  9. #19
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    Alot of people like and follow James Corbett and the Corbett Report. His current video attempts to define blockchains potential for both good and evil and while I agree with him - he does a much better job than I could do in explaining my own position/understanding of the subject. While the Corbett report is usually good at boiling down topics on geopolitics, society, and economics (from a liberty mind-set) this is a complex topic that may be over the heads of many non-technical people. Blockchain, Bitcoin, and Cryptocurrencies are extremely complex. Still... it is a great summary of very real benefits and very real dangers of the systems currently being built and future systems.


    This video is ONLY for people interested in going beyond the simple "get rich off bitcoin" or "it is worthless with no intrinsic value" and getting a little deeper on how this will change the world in the next few years. After all, Blockchain and Cryptocurrency is either set us all free or enslave us at some point in the future. My bet is on the latter which is why liberty minded people should understand this technology.


  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by cptmidnight View Post
    ...This video is ONLY for people interested in going beyond the simple "get rich off bitcoin" or "it is worthless with no intrinsic value" and getting a little deeper on how this will change the world in the next few years.
    LOL. I'll take Only Extreme View-Choices for $500 Alex.

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