CDC Confirms Coronavirus Case In Seattle, Expects More Cases To Come

[The Cub]

Scientists Discover HIV-Like "Mutation" Which Makes Coronavirus Extremely Infectious

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-hiv-mutation-suggests-nearly-1000x-more-likely-sars-infect

[Oscar Wilde]

Not to contribute to the frenzy ... I just received this note from a friend I served with long ago. I don't believe I know the individual who wrote it.

(My friend) Just received this note from a retired SF (Semper Fi) soldier living in China.
TL/DR: big impact coming on medical supplies, vitamins, and drugs. Stock up now.

Hi all. So the Corona Virus has shut down all of East and Central China and is now moving across other countries in Asia. This is going to have deep and almost immediate effects on goods and products that are for sale in the US, on everything from auto parts to zippers.

Of greatest concern for now is what it will do to supplies of medical equipment and drugs, everything from band aids and cotton swabs and vitamins and prescription drugs of all kinds. Also, protective gear like face masks and hazmat suits. I strongly advise that you prepare your families accordingly, and consider begin stocking up on some of these items that will be in very high demand, very soon.

China makes of 90% of the drug ingredients and about 80% of the medical supplies used in the United States, and right now, nobody in China is making them at all.

I have been living in China for eight years and am on Wechat (a social networking app) with about 800 expatriate business executives across China. The economy here no longer exists, basically. It’s been closed for 3 weeks, and nobody really knows when the manufacturing sector or any of the factories will reopen. Martial law has been declared in eight provinces with a total population of 500 million people, and the rest of us outside these zones have had our movements proscribed to going out to get groceries once every two days.

Army and police in the Eastern provinces (where most of the industry is) are arresting people who are outside their homes, though even that isn’t as effective as before because now so many military and police units are infected and unable to function.

There are very few flights available in; the roads and ports are closed, railroads shut down. Even if a factory owner can get permission to open, his workers aren’t allowed to move, and he can’t ship product out. This will go on for an indeterminate period.

For the kinds of drugs and supplies I’ve mentioned above, the export markets will not be getting any new production for many weeks. These supplies and medicines are in critical and desperate supply here and the Chinese government has ordered local governments to procure whatever is necessary from factories and shops.

The true numbers of the infected and dead are many orders of magnitude higher than the official accounts, which nobody really believes anymore.

A quick note about care or aid packages: in the event you have churches or friends here in Asia who ask you to send them medical supplies, those packages will likely never arrive to where you had hoped. The customs officials have been ordered to seize any medical supplies for use in hospitals. Even passengers arriving in airports are having their carry-on bags and stowed luggage searched for masks, respirators, rain gear (no kidding)—anything that could be used by hospital staff to protect themselves from what they’re dealing with—and it’s being confiscated.

With respect to the disease itself, I don’t think this disease can be stopped anything short of supernatural means. Infections continue to soar, even under military-enforced quarantines that have been in place for almost a month. You have to see the Army response here to believe it, and yet nothing has worked.

You mercifully haven’t had many cases there, yet, but I fear that you’re just six or seven weeks behind where we are in China, and four to five weeks behind Japan. Only a miracle can stop it, and that’s what we need to be praying for. If you're a man or woman of faith, get some more. If at some point you left it or lost it, go back to where you saw it last, and pick it up again.

All the best,

O.W.

[Bear]

I watched part of the Senate briefing on the COVID-19 and was struck by the complete lack of anybody going through the numbers about this virus. The acting head of DHS could not answer how many ventilators were available in the US, for example.

Here’s the math – admittedly back of the envelope and rounded off for simplicity’s sake.

There are 931,000 hospital beds in the US, this includes adult and pediatric units. An available bed must be 1) actually empty, 2) staffed with nurses and physicians, 3) clean/disinfected. (It is amazing how difficult that is to actually tally over a given shift in a given hospital.)

There are 93,955 ICU beds in the US, divided among surgical, medical and neurological units. These beds are ventilator capable but there might not be an actual ventilator in the room.

The national ventilator survey in 2010 showed a total of 62,274 full feature ventilators with 22,485 pediatric capable. (I could not find a more current number outside of financial reports behind a paywall.)

A study in 2013 indicated that ICUs had a bed occupancy of 57-82% with 20-38% of the patients on ventilators. My experience in the Houston metroplex for the last 25 years is 100% occupancy (with patients waiting in the ER) with 50% containing ventilated patients. This is pre-COVID-19.

There are approximately 20,000 of these intensivists in the country – these doctors are trained in internal medicine, pulmonology or anesthesia and have received further training in ICU care.I watched part of the Senate briefing on the COVID-19 and was struck by the complete lack of anybody going through the numbers about this virus. The acting head of DHS could not answer how many ventilators were available in the US, for example.

Here’s the math – admittedly back of the envelope and rounded off for simplicity’s sake.

There are 931,000 hospital beds in the US, this includes adult and pediatric units. An available bed must be 1) actually empty, 2) staffed with nurses and physicians, 3) clean/disinfected. (It is amazing how difficult that is to actually tally over a given shift in a given hospital.)

There are 93,955 ICU beds in the US, divided among surgical, medical and neurological units. These beds are ventilator capable but there might not be an actual ventilator in the room.

The national ventilator survey in 2010 showed a total of 62,274 full feature ventilators with 22,485 pediatric capable. (I could not find a more current number outside of financial reports behind a paywall.)

A study in 2013 indicated that ICUs had a bed occupancy of 57-82% with 20-38% of the patients on ventilators. My experience in the Houston metroplex for the last 25 years is 100% occupancy (with patients waiting in the ER) with 50% containing ventilated patients. This is pre-COVID-19.

There are approximately 20,000 of these intensivists in the country – these doctors are trained in internal medicine, pulmonology or anesthesia and have received further training in ICU care.

There are approximately 2.85 million RNs in the US, I don’t have a breakdown for ICU nurses, but I doubt that that is more than 1-2% of all nurses, so 2,850 to 5,700 ICU nurses.

Recall that there are currently 1,700 infected doctors/nurses in Wuhan alone, so there will be less available healthcare workers.

While the true natural history of COVID-19 are not clear, the CDC is estimating that 60% of the world will be infected if the outbreak is not stopped.

In the US, that is 198,000,000 infected in the US alone. 80% will have a mild illness and not need medical care. 20% may be sick enough to seek care in an ER, that works out to 39.6 million ER visits in a very short time. For a sense of scale, there are 13 – 19 million ER visits in a given flu season out of a background of approximately 40 million ER visits annually for everything else.

That 39.6 million ER visits may be a low number as people panic and come to the ER without COVID19 but have flu like symptoms.

Hospitals, prisons and cruise ships have shown very high transmission rates, as high as 40%. This means that uninfected people in the hospital, that are already sick and frail, are going to be infected and likely end up in an ICU.

If only 10% of the ER visits are sick enough to need a hospital bed, that works out to 3.96 million patients needing admission for 7-10 days. Remember we have 931K hospital beds TOTAL in the USA.

Assuming 3-5% are sick enough to need the ICU, from the total number of infected that end up admitted (the 3.96 million above), that is 118,800 to 198,000 patients that will need to be ventilated. Remember that we only have 93,955 ICU beds and 62,274 ventilators in the entire US and they are currently full of other patients.

Also factor in the problems of ICU/ventilator care with everybody in hazmat suits, the cost and medical waste generated that must be disposed of.

Of these ventilated patients, 60% die, so that is 71,280 to 118,800 dead of COVID-19 alone.
I am not factoring in the 2nd and 3rd order effects on morbidity/mortality as medical resources are diverted to care for the COVID-19 patients, the disruptions in medical supplies, loss of healthcare workers to infection, economic impact and so it goes.

This is also on top of a healthcare system that is in basic freefall as it is.

So, I think this might be a very big deal indeed if the current numbers hold up.

There are approximately 2.85 million RNs in the US, I don’t have a breakdown for ICU nurses, but I doubt that that is more than 1-2% of all nurses, so 2,850 to 5,700 ICU nurses.

Recall that there are currently 1,700 infected doctors/nurses in Wuhan alone, so there will be less available healthcare workers.

While the true natural history of COVID-19 are not clear, the CDC is estimating that 60% of the world will be infected if the outbreak is not stopped.

In the US, that is 198,000,000 infected in the US alone. 80% will have a mild illness and not need medical care. 20% may be sick enough to seek care in an ER, that works out to 39.6 million ER visits in a very short time. For a sense of scale, there are 13 – 19 million ER visits in a given flu season out of a background of approximately 40 million ER visits annually for everything else.

That 39.6 million ER visits may be a low number as people panic and come to the ER without COVID19 but have flu like symptoms.

Hospitals, prisons and cruise ships have shown very high transmission rates, as high as 40%. This means that uninfected people in the hospital, that are already sick and frail, are going to be infected and likely end up in an ICU.

If only 10% of the ER visits are sick enough to need a hospital bed, that works out to 3.96 million patients needing admission for 7-10 days. Remember we have 931K hospital beds TOTAL in the USA.

Assuming 3-5% are sick enough to need the ICU, from the total number of infected that end up admitted (the 3.96 million above), that is 118,800 to 198,000 patients that will need to be ventilated. Remember that we only have 93,955 ICU beds and 62,274 ventilators in the entire US and they are currently full of other patients.

Also factor in the problems of ICU/ventilator care with everybody in hazmat suits, the cost and medical waste generated that must be disposed of.

Of these ventilated patients, 60% die, so that is 71,280 to 118,800 dead of COVID-19 alone.
I am not factoring in the 2nd and 3rd order effects on morbidity/mortality as medical resources are diverted to care for the COVID-19 patients, the disruptions in medical supplies, loss of healthcare workers to infection, economic impact and so it goes.

This is also on top of a healthcare system that is in basic freefall as it is.

So, I think this might be a very big deal indeed if the current numbers hold up.

[Hoppalong]

[The Cub]

Italy seeks to calm fears in Europe as cases, deaths rise

https://apnews.com/3fdb7f213cbb6bb44c342dd6ae6f2fd1



Latest American infected with coronavirus has no relevant travel history: CDC

https://abcnews.go.com/International...ry?id=69225004

[KingsX]

South Korea reports 334 new coronavirus cases,
postpones military drill with US troops



" SEOUL (REUTERS) - South Korea reported 334 additional cases of the new coronavirus on Thursday (Feb 27), the largest daily increase yet, as the US State Department issued a new travel warning for South Korea and a joint military drill was postponed.

The new cases bring the total tally to 1,595, the Korea Centres for Disease Control & Prevention (KCDC) said.

The daily figure is the largest reported spike in the country since its first case was confirmed on Jan 20. South Korea also reported its 13th death linked to the virus.

Of the new cases, 307 were in the south-eastern city of Daegu, where a church that was at the centre of the outbreak is located, the KCDC said in its statement.

The US State Department raised its travel advisory level for South Korea and urged citizens to "reconsider travel" to the country.

The virus that can lead to pneumonia is believed to have originated in a market selling wildlife in the central Chinese city of Wuhan late last year. It has infected about 80,000 people and killed more than 2,700, the vast majority in China.

The US military reported its first case of the coronavirus on Wednesday, in a 23-year-old soldier based in Camp Carroll, about 20km from Daegu.

There are some 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea, which remains technically at war with North Korea.

The South Korean military has also reported at least 21 infections, and has confined most troops to their bases.

An upcoming "command post training" usually conducted by members of the two militaries' Combined Forces Command will be postponed "until further notice", according to a statement from the combined command.

The US commander in the country agreed to postpone the training after a request by South Korea's chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. "

more at link

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/ea...with-us-troops

[The Cub]

Warning: Disturbing video. People screaming at night in agony from COV19


.

[KingsX]

Warning: Disturbing video. People screaming at night in agony from COV19

I can't access the video at present... but your description reminded me of the screams of the dying when God's destroying angel strikes them in the "Ten Commandments" movie.

As I have previously posted... Rev 18 tells us about the FALL of the degenerate end of the age global evil empire symbolically called "Babylon" and the ensuing global economic fallout.

While reading Rev 18... note Rev 18:2: Babylon the great is fallen, is fallen, and is become the habitation of devils, and the hold of every foul spirit, and a cage of every unclean and hateful bird.

Interesting analogy... considering bats [while not "birds" do fly similar to birds and are listed with unclean birds in the Bible - Leviticus 11:13-19] who are caged and sold in China's filthy exotic animal markets have been specifically mentioned in the news the past months as the possible origin of coronavirus.

[Hoppalong]

[jimmyb]

The WOrld health organization is criticizing Trump.When it first looked like an epidemic they wouldn’t give stepping in to try to stop it a second thought..
hypocrites