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Thread: If This Poll Is Accurate, Trump Will Be Reelected Easily

  1. #1
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    Default If This Poll Is Accurate, Trump Will Be Reelected Easily

    If This Poll Is Accurate, Trump Will Be Reelected Easily


    By Matt Margolis Aug 02, 2020 6:14 PM EST


    AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

    President Donald Trump’s job approval hit its highest level in more than five months in Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll from Friday, reports CNSNews.

    According to the poll, 50 percent of likely voters approve of Trump, with 39 percent strongly approving. Disapproval was at 48 percent, with 43 percent strongly disapproving.

    Trump’s approval in this poll was boosted by black voters. According to Rasmussen, a slight majority of black voters approve of Trump, and a higher percentage of minority voters approve of the president.

    Two months ago, black likely voter approval for President Trump in the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll was at 40 percent. In August 2019, black voter approval for Trump stood at 26 percent.

    Trump received 8 percent of the African American vote in 2016.

    I was very much skeptical of Rasmussen’s 40 percent approval number two months ago. Approval that high from black voters would make Trump’s reelection all but certain. While I question the results of this poll, I do believe that it is possible that it could be more accurately capturing the trend of black approval for Trump. If Trump’s approval from likely black voters was at 26 percent a year ago, it is certainly possible that the economic improvements black Americans experienced prior to the pandemic could have resulted in a surge of support.
    I don’t see it hitting 40 percent or even 26 percent, let alone 50 percent. But is it possible that Trump could get 10 to 12 percent of the black vote in November? I can see that.

    Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016, but even they urge caution in putting too much stock in these numbers. “Fact Check: True,” they tweeted. “However since this is represented in only 1 overnight polling cycle so far we urge caution in making any predictions on this. Let’s wait.”

    Fact Check: True. However since this is represented in only 1 overnight polling cycle so far we urge caution in making any predictions on this. Let's wait.
    Majority of Black and Other Minority Voters Approve of Trump, Topping Whites’ Approval https://t.co/HtIzZFqheN
    — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 2, 2020

    So, while I don’t think Trump’s approval from black voters is that high, I do think they do reflect improving approval from minorities. Whether it’s enough to secure his reelection, we just have to wait and see.

    https://pjmedia.com/election/matt-ma...easily-n742618
    ”The trouble with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.” - Margaret Thatcher

  2. #2
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    Rasmussen gets closer to the truth by trying to poll more normal Americans than most of the others do.


    Leftism Is a Religion Without The Ability To Forgive

  3. #3
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    Rasmussen is garbage. Their final 2018 midterm poll had Republicans ahead on House races by a point when it was really a 8+ point Blue Wave.

    The final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point, but in essence, the two parties are tied. The survey has a +/-2 percentage point margin of error.


    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.
    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...l_ballot_nov05

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