1. Look at the partisan breakdown of the poll and make sure it is the 2012 numbers. The partisan breakdown I am using for the 2012 elections is: D=33.3%, R=37.6%, I=29.2%. We are at the highest percentage of Republican registrations and the lowest percent of Democrat registrations in history. The polls you see that show Obama leading in states like Ohio are deceiving you because they are running Democrat percentages that are 44% or MORE; that’s just ridiculous because the highest Democrat registration advantage in YEARS was in 2008, where Democrats were at 41.4% to just 33.8% for Republicans and 24.7% for Independents. 2008 was the Democrats’ high water mark surfing that giant wave of Hopeychange kool-aid.
In 2010, Democrats’ numbers decreased substantially because of the unpopularity of Obamacare and the failed Trillion Dollar Stimulus; numbers that year fell to 34.7% for Democrats and rose to 36% for Republicans (with 29.3% of people who continue to claim they can’t make up their mind which party they support). Now, this is the part where I typically lose Justin because he does not much like numbers and doesn’t appreciate how Democrats try to deceive people…but I believe 2010 was just the beginning of people being fed up with what Democrats have been doing in office under Obama while the corrupt media is trying to insist “the Tea Party went away” and Democrats have become more popular since 2010.
The corrupt media is claiming that Democrats’ favor with the public has INCREASED since 2010 and in fact is even higher than it was in 2008. That’s just insane. In reality, people like Democrats less than they did in 2010, which puts them at a D=33.3% number in reality where polls like the “Obama is winning Ohio!” one have Democrats at 44% or more. That’s just wishcasting on the part of the pollsters. Justin asks, “Well, why would they lie like that?” and I need to remind him they do this to demoralize people like him and his mother CarolAnne in Arkansas who becomes depressed when she reads that “Obama’s leading in Ohio by 5! We’re doomed!”. If you keep falling for this stuff, you’re just foolish. I’m sorry to be this blunt, but you are. The good thing is that you can stop being foolish if you choose to also stop letting these people trick you as much as they do Justin’s mother.
2. Look at the gender gap in the poll and see if it is realistic. The second easiest way to cook a poll is to include a much higher percentage of women than men because women tend to vote Democrat more than men. There are a lot of women who very stupidly fall for the Democrats’ baby-killing messaging and enjoy hearing the word “Choice” since Republicans foolishly don’t insist that be called ‘The Right to Kill Babies”. Democrats will enjoy a woman voter advantage until the day Republicans wise up and prevent them from couching things in terms of “Choice” instead of putting the focus on the actual killing of babies in wombs that’s being done. If a poll has a higher percentage of women over men than the actual state has, then the poll has been cooked to favor Democrats. Women and men actually vote in equal numbers and it usually shakes out to 51% women and 49% men in elections. A poll that has 9% more women than men in it is just cooked to gig advantages to Democrats. So don’t fall for it!
3. Look for the racial breakdown of the poll to check if that’s being cooked for Democrats’ benefit. This is similar to the above, but is a little more complicated because on average blacks are 12% of the population but have a very low turnout in typical election years. 2008 was an anomaly because race-pride drove a lot of blacks to the polls, where many of them shouted obnoxiously “It’s the Black House now!” and generally reveled in the fact that they got to vote for a black candidate for president. I kind of understand this a little, because I’d like to see Congressman Aaron Schock come out of the closet so I could someday hopefully vote for him to be our first gay VP or President. I do think it would be cool to vote another gay guy into high national office, just as many blacks loved being able to vote for someone who looked like them on a ballot. But re-electing Obama is not the same thing as putting him into office the first time. History was made, and re-electing him is not as exciting. A lot of blacks are still looking for their “Obama Money” and still wondering where their hope and change is. I expect black voter turnout to be back to normal levels this year. What’s interesting about that is the fact that other facets of Democrat voter blocs will be decreased this year, and fall under 2006 or 2004 levels but blacks will probably vote at 2006 levels because the enthusiasm for Obama is still higher among blacks and they’ll turn out more than other Democrat identity blocs in a year in which across the board people are very disappointed in Democrats. So, you might use the 2004 numbers to tell you how many women will support Democrats but you should use the 2006 (higher) numbers for blacks because of the race-pride factor. There’s no way that blacks or any other Democrat identity bloc will vote in 2008 percentages, though, so any poll that’s saying these numbers will be the same (or higher!) is bunk.
4. Make sure you understand what “independents” typically do in elections like this. Having an incumbent like Obama in the race changes how independents vote. Undecided or independent voters are actually neither of these things and are instead just people who don’t like to commit to either party, for whatever reason. They know Obama well, and they are not waiting for more information on him. If he does not have their vote at this point, there’s nothing between now and election day that Obama can do to secure them. I think the 80/20 rule will apply to these people and Romney will get the majority of them. Some of these clowns fancy themselves as great philosophers who won’t take a stand on something “until they have all the facts”. They’ve seen people do this on the tee-vee and think this is how they are supposed to act when someone from a polling company asks their opinion. Justin’s dad actually does this in restaurants, where he grills the waitress on all the specials, takes up about 15 minutes of her time asking all sorts of questions about the menu, and then ultimately orders the same double-cheesburger with chili fries that Doc always gets. Justin knows what his father will do because that’s what he always does, but part of Doc’s fun in going out to a restaurant is to engage in all these theatrics. I think it’s dumb, but honestly I can see millions of “independents” doing this as part of their “fun” come election time. We know these people are not voting for Obama again but they just don’t want to give up the game by saying they are going to vote for Romney.
5. See who paid for the poll and who is loudly trumpeting its results. Here’s a really quick rule of thumb: if Chris Matthews, Rachel Maddow, and Anderson Cooper are reading the results of a poll and excitedly declaring its importance there is a 99% change that poll is bunk. The polls that are valid are the ones that MSNBC and CNN ignore or try to bury. If you’re someone fool enough to watch either of those channels, you should only be doing it as an exercise in peering through the looking glass into BizarroWorld. Do you remember “Baghdad Bob” during the Iraq War? That was Saddam Hussein’s Minister of Truth would take to the airwaves every day reporting that Saddam Hussein was winning and that American forces were being crushed by the Iraqi army. As he’d say this, US tanks would roll by with GIs mooning the camera. It was hilarious. THAT is what Matthews, Maddow, Cooper and the rest are like if you know the real story. They flagrantly and deliberately lie on TV every day and they push bad polls that make Obama look good. You really need to see the corrupt media as a Ministry of Truth and respond to their “reporting” appropriately.
...Obama is losing and will lose the presidency. The Left is doing all that it can to cling to power. This involves a massive misinformation and demoralization campaign.
Our greatest burden is how willing some conservatives are to HELP the Left by going off on Eeyore trips and posting online how “worried” they are about this or that poll without stopping to think about whether or both they are being played.
How the Corrupt Media Deliberately Deceives You With Polling in Order to Help Obama
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Originally Posted by Sprout
