Hurricane Sandy. A Nightmare for the East Coast or a Miss

[Cav Trooper]

Some might consider the Water Bob bathtub water bladder system. They sell them on Amazon. It's a quick and easy way to store up to 100 gallons of water inside your home's tub and a means to remove water as needed without a mess.

These are pretty cool.

[BB]

Joe Bastardi ‏

@BigJoeBastardi
Landfall at Somers pt NJ

@BigJoeBastardi
Once Sandy gets released from upper low later tomorrow night and Sat ( She will get to 100 miles or less off Fla) intensification starts

@BigJoeBastardi
Though perhaps a bit far north, 18z GFS was dramatic
pic.twitter.com/mqFZMZvT



@BigJoeBastardi
Actually hit on our site this am was atlantic city
pic.twitter.com/SPq7CaF7

[Stanb999]

Preliminary extended forecast discussion
nws hydrometeorological prediction center college park md
436 am edt fri oct 26 2012

valid 12z tue oct 30 2012 - 12z fri nov 02 2012

...hurricane/post-tropical cyclone sandy is likely to spread high
winds/heavy rains/heavy mountain snows from the carolinas and
central appalachians northward into canada...

General flow pattern
====================
a retrograding positive anomaly moving from southern greenland
into northern quebec favors a quasi-stationary deep cyclone near
the northeast, in this case hurricane sandy and its post-tropical
remains. Otherwise...ridging is general expected out
west...though quasi-zonal flow across the pacific is expected to
send energy across the northwest. The guidance is in excellent
agreement on the general flow pattern, though large detail issues
remain with sandy's future course and strength, keeping certainty
in the pattern across the northeast below average.

Model preference
================
the national hurricane center (nhc) track best resembles a
40/20/20/20 blend of the 12z ecmwf ensemble mean/00z ecmwf/00z
gfs/00z ukmet, which was used for monday through wednesday. For
thursday and next friday, transitioned to a 00z gfs/00z ecmwf
compromise as their solutions with sandy converge. The
extratropical transition of sandy may have already begun based
upon recent satellite imagery...a process expected to complete
between tuesday and wednesday per nhc. The deterministic guidance
(particularly the 00z ecmwf) show pressure solutions well beyond
what has ever been observed near the new jersey/new york coast
(even exceeding the 1938 long island express hurricane) early in
the medium range period. The deterministic guidance (canadian,
gfs, and ecmwf included) has shown a very strong bias with
tropical cyclones gaining latitude and/or transitioning into
non-tropical storms over the past couple years, including (but not
exclusive to) leslie 2012, isaac 2012, debby 2012 in the western
subtropical atlantic, irene 2011, and igor 2010. Even the
perfect/halloween storm of 1991 "only" bottomed out at 972 hpa,
and this forecast was allowed to exceed that system without going
overboard. Pressures for the storm were capped around 965 hpa
early in the period prior to landfall, and allowed to weaken once
inland. This was coordinated with the ocean prediction center
(opc) and is close to the past couple days of hpc/opc continuity.
Keep in mind this preference would indicate that the model-derived
qpfs for the guidance showing central pressures under 965 hpa are
likely too excessive due to their extreme low pressure solutions
for sandy.

Weather impacts
===============
per this solution, from sunday through wednesday, winds near
hurricane-force are expected to lash exposed areas of the
northeast/mid-atlantic states (the coast and topography), leading
to potentially serious coastal erosion and coastal flooding. The
timing of the full moon and the build-up of tides over multiple
tidal cycles should exacerbate the situation along the coast,
particularly in corners such as the new york bight. Heavy rains
are expected to focus within sandy's warm conveyor belt
circulation as well as along its draping warm front from the
northern mid-atlantic states into eastern canada, with local
amounts exceeding 10 inches possible. This solution would allow
significant snows within its comma head pattern to fall across the
mountains of west virginia/western pennsylvania/eastern ohio;
likely not to the extreme degree seen within any of the current
deterministic guidance. Lake effect snows across the eastern
great lakes are possible through the period within the cyclonic
flow in the system's cold sector. As the cyclone weakens as it
pulls northward thursday into next friday, winds should slacken as
should precipitation amounts/coverage across the northeast.

[Stanb999]

Read the above carefully.

The storm models are forecasting the storm so strong that they are just making it sensible (weakening it, drastically). There is still much disagreement on the where. But they are going with the middle of the range. Delmarva to Long Island. Not that exact locations will matter much to coastal communities.

These NOAA guys are very conservative. Really the pros of the forecasting profession. They don't hype.

[Stanb999]

[BB]

Sarah Watson‏@ACPressSarah

5am advisory has #Sandy making landfall at the mouth of the Del Bay as a hurricane early Tues. This would be worst case scenario for S NJ.

[BB]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...large#contents

Hurricane SANDY


U.S. Rainfall
Potential
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom out – Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – InteractiveNew!

[Stanb999]

Model tracks

[Stanb999]

GFS storm model. This should make it obvious that exact land fall means little.

[Stanb999]

Still snow for the mountains.